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Tuesday, June 23, 1998

Market in oversold zone, recovery likely to begin soon 

K Seshadri  
The market is now firmly oversold. Even though Sensex has been sliding down relentlessly, it had not reached the oversold region technically until Monday. Now that the index has reached this oversold level, the bottom for the market can be said to be not too far away. Hopefully and more importantly, recovery could soon begin. Now to more detailed discussion.

The Sensex opened on a weak note at 3063, some 80 points lower than the previous close of 3143. It moved up to a level of 3031, but declined later to 2951. In the last one hour the index moved up briskly to post a high of 3098, closing a little lower at 3079. Ultimately the index has formed what is called a `white umbrella line' or `hammer in the candle stick' charts.

This has bullish implications. Last time this happened was on June 16. The next day the Sensex jumped at the opening from 3161 to 3291. But that was also coincidentally the curtailing of short sales by SEBI. In any case the market can be expected to open on a bullish note onTuesday.

Some technical indicators are crystallising more clearly on Monday. The Sensex has now reached a critical oversold region. This would mean that the room left for further move down is limited. Either that will be reached soon or the Sensex might start retracing its path now.

The index has been showing much bounce up and down in the last few days. It is difficult to separate the impact of the artificial conditions of trading introduced in the market by SEBI. But other wise, this bounce could mean that the index has become buoyant at the bottom level on the daily charts. This should help make a beginning of the recovery process.

On Monday the market pierced through the previous bottom at 2951, but closed higher. The recovery could well be due to short sellers chosing to cover up the short sales as directed by SEBI when prices were attractively low. While the daily buoyancy is healthy, I must point out that technically that there is some more potential for the market to go down further on aslightly longer span. This as the technicals stand today. That picture could change if the Sensex moves up consistently in the next few days. Even other wise, the daily buoyancy could convert itself into a short technical correction upwards. The good bounce seen in many pivotals today should limit the scope for slide down tomorrow and re-inforce the bounce. The market has turned buoyant.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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