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Tuesday, June 23, 1998

Malaysian export data to influence palm oil prices 

Tan Lee Lee  
Kuala Lumpur, June 22: Movements in regional currencies and Malaysia's export data are likely to determine the direction of Asian palm oil prices this week, traders said.

They said the wild swing in the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah has triggered continued speculative interest in the markets.

"I don't know how the market is going to behave. There is currency fluctuation which pushes prices up, but on the other hand, there is also a need to stabilise prices to prevent social upheaval," said one trader in Jakarta.

"Currency movements remain a major factor in the palm market if there are no supply or demand factors," said a Malaysian trader, adding that palm oil prices could climb again if the ringgit fell back below the 4.00 a dollar support level.

The ringgit and rupiah dipped to 4.09 and 16,800 to the dollar respectively last week before settling at around 3.97 and 13,900 on Friday.

Malaysia's benchmark, third month September futures contract closed on Friday at 2,307 ringgit atonne.

Traders said currency volatility has made prediction of support and resistance levels difficult.

"Apart from currency, the market is waiting for Malaysian export figures to be released by cargo surveyor SGS this week," said a trader in Kuala Lumpur. "We are keen to know the export numbers as there was talk that exports for this month have picked up."

On last Friday, private crop forecaster Ivan Wong said he expected exports to rise to 605,000 tonnes in June from 525,668 tonnes in May.

Wong forecast end-June stocks at 650,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, the Indonesian palm olein market was quiet in trading on Monday as traders remained confused over the role of state-run trading company, Dharma Niaga, in distributing cheap cooking oil. "I don't feel like taking any position today. The whole issue concerning Dharma Niaga is still confusing," said one trader in Jakarta. Traders said the state-run trading company was selling cheap olein at 3,800 rupiah/kg to retailers who would later sell the cooking oil tocustomers in traditional markets at 4,000 rupiah/kg.

But retailers complained that prices were higher compared with when the sale was being organised by the state-run joint marketing office (KPB). The KPB, which sells crude palm oil (CPO) it obtains from state plantations, sold olein at 3,500 rupiah/kg. "I also heard from retailers the procedures to get olein from Dharma Niaga are very complicated," said one trader.

Housewives have started to complain again over the high prices of cooking oil amid the currency crisis which triggered soaring prices of other essentials such as rice and milk.

The official Antara news agency reported on Monday the government would review its decision to assign distribution to Dharma Niaga because of the rising prices of cooking oil.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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