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Wednesday, June 24, 1998

A sentimental blow 

 
The southward spiral of the rupee could continue unabated, unless the market is convinced that there are some fresh avenues for forex inflows. The nuclear tests which invited sanctions from the United States led to the postponement of loans from the World Bank and Moody's downgrade of India's sovereign rating to speculative grade. This coupled with a $1.2 billion dent in the forex reserves in June, to prop up the rupee have led to negative sentiments. Even the stop gap measures, like RBI's initiative to allow FIIs forward cover on their incremental equity investments and the government's decision to hike NRI investment ceiling from 30 per cent to 40 per cent, do not seem adequate to improve sentiments. Especially given the bearish undertone for investment in the country. Which is clearly visible in a shallow market like foreign exchange, wherein sentiments rather than fundamentals are the driving force.

A nervous market could translate into panic, thereby skyrocketing the demand for dollars which would farexceed supply. Given this scenario continuing for long, can speculators be expected to abstain from the feeding frenzy. The rupee which closed at 42.20 on Friday weakened sharply to cross 43 on Tuesday. Exporters are staying away from the market as they expect the rupee to depreciate further, while importers are rushing to cover their positions. Thus with forward premia up, the ominous signs clearly predict another fall of the rupee. The government which missed a golden opportunity in the union budget to attract foreign investment will have to announce measures that will speed up the process of attracting foreign money especially in the infrastructure sector. Along with this it needs to launch the Resurgent India Bond and the India Millennium Fund at the earliest. This is expected to contribute $6 billion to the forex kitty and boost market sentiments.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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