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Wednesday, June 24, 1998

Knee-jerk reaction 

 
The decision to hike the foreign portfolio investment ceiling in Indian listed companies cannot but be viewed with askance. Ostensibly, the government wants to create room for NRIs. The budget had doubled the aggregate ceiling for non-resident investment to 10 per cent and raised the individual ceiling to 5 per cent from one per cent. This ceiling formed part of the overall (including FII) ceiling. Its merit was that if FIIs liquidated their holdings, it was open to NRIs to step in. In the current situation of falling share prices, it made sense to bring in NRIs, as a countervailing measure, to pick up equity from the secondary markets at throwaway prices. However, the government has had second thoughts. It has now prescribed two ceilings, one for NRIs (10 per cent) and the other for FIIs. The latter can acquire upto 24 per cent of a company's equity, and upto 30 per cent if the company so desires. FIIs thus have the assurance of exiting without fear of being pre-empted by NRIs. As a strategy for staunchingFII outflows, the new ceilings are a knee-jerk reaction.

Effectively, foreign portfolio investment in Indian companies can now go up (from 30 per cent) to 40 per cent of their paid-up capital. This raises the question, is their a dearth of domestic savings for investment in equity? The fact is that financial savings are substantial and rising, but these are flowing largely into small savings (government sponsored instruments), bank deposits and corporate debt. This preference of domestic savers is a sad commentary on the secondary and (more importantly) the primary markets, and on the confidence corporates inspire in potential Indian investors. Flagging private corporate investment has eroded investor confidence. This needs to be addressed by the government and the representative organisations of business (CII, FICCI and others). The point will not be missed that given the on-going state of affairs, it is unlikely that foreign (including NRI) investment will occupy the ground ignored by domesticsavers.

The new ceilings raise two issues. First, they create space for foreign portfolio investors to go in for take-overs. This is not to say that they will, but who can say what will happen in the future? Second, since foreign portfolio investment can come in and walk out at will (in this regard, the rupee is fully convertible), the new ceilings add to the vulnerability of the country's external account. Instead of wooing foreign portfolio investment, it will be worthwhile sorting out the issues holding up foreign direct investment, notably, in civil aviation, telecom and power.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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