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Saturday, June 27, 1998

Japan, China deepen metal market gloom 

Joyce Liu  
SINGAPORE, June 26: Japan's recession-hit economy and worries over extra China copper exports are adding more gloom to the bearish metals market in southeast Asia, traders said on Friday.

A continuing economic slowdown has pushed down copper premiums in Singapore and traders saw fewer aluminium shipments heading this way amid slack demand.Copper premiums in Singapore have slipped to well below $60 from above $60 a week ago, but still could not attract buyers and most traders saw a sliding trend continuing.

"The market is very bad. There are offers, but there have not been bids for a long time," said a Singapore-based trader with a major metals trading house.

"As long as the yen is weak, people won't have any confidence," the trader said.

Japan and China are two main metal players in Asia. Traders said deals could be done even at under $50 and some worried extra outflows of Chinese copper would further dampen the already bearish market.

The Chinese government is expected to increase export taxrebates slightly to boost sagging sales and offset a loss of competitiveness to sharply weaker currencies in other Asian countries.

"I don't know where China can sell its copper and I wonder what kind of prices they can offer in a bearish market like this," said one Singapore-based copper trader.

"It's a potential threat of increasing supplies, though personally I don't think they will export too much when prices are not good," the trader said.Aluminium trade was at a standstill as demand remained slack across the region and stocks in Japan were still high, traders said.

"Stocks are high and the yen is weak. I don't know what we can do about aluminium. There is simply no demand at all," said one Japanese trader in Singapore.

Activity was also slow because the northern hemisphere summer is a typically quiet period for metals, they said.

Premiums in Singapore hovered slightly above $50 as fewer deliveries came in because of the regional economic slowdown and because producers have redirected supplieselsewhere, mainly to Europe and the United States, in the past few months. Fewer shipments have prevented aluminium premiums from falling in recent weeks, traders said.

Premiums in the key Japanese market, seen as a regional benchmark, were set at between US$42 and $44 a tonne for the third quarter, compared with $44-$47 in the second quarter and $71-$74 in the first quarter.

"The support mainly comes from tight supplies, but as there is no demand anyway, we won't see a big rise in premiums. They will just be supported," said a trader with a European house.

"A lot of people will be on holiday and it will be a very slow market. Maybe we'll see some movements after the summer, but I would not say we will see improvement," the trader said.

Zinc traders said they did not see Chinese zinc coming this way and did not expect major outflows from the mainland. China exports its zinc to Singapore, Japan and South Korea.

"Chinese zinc is not coming out here. It almost stopped,"said one Singapore-based traderwho specialises in Chinese zinc. China has cut down zinc exports, which fell a year-on-year 33 per cent in the first five months to 132,293 tonnes, and two of China largest zinc smelters are in, or facing, lengthy annual maintenance shutdowns.

"Instead of saying they will cut down zinc output because of the bad market, they just say smelters are closed for maintenance," the trader said. "This reflects how bad the market is," he said.

Huludao Zinc Smelter, the largest zinc producer with an annual capacity of 300,000 tonnes, has already begun its scheduled eight-week maintenance on June 2.

Zhuzhou Smelter, the second largest smelter with an annual capacity of about 100,000 tonnes, will start maintenance in August.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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