The meeting called by the BJP to patch up differences with its coalition partners on Saturday has now been frustrated. The AIADMK leader J Jayalalitha has decided to abstain from the meeting. Other major coalition partners Mamata Banerjee and Ramakrishna Hegde are also not attending the meeting.

While it is clear that Jayalalitha does not want to relent on her pressure about the dismissal of the DMK government, one is not sure if she would take the extreme step of withdrawing support to the government. This is because her options at the moment are limited.

Congress president Sonia Gandhi is reported to prefer to wait and the let the BJP government fall through a breakdown of its supporting partners rather than kick off a proactive destabilisation game.Investors need to take a close look at these political clouds and try to figure out the probable outcome of these rumblings. Stock markets are known to be very sensitive to news of all kinds. The Parliament resumes on July 3 after a recess of over three weeks.

The Finance Bill is still to be approved in the Lok Sabha. It is not unimaginable that Jayalalitha might have thought now to be the most opportune time to remind the BJP of what her support means to the Centre.

The game may well be to keep the pressure on the BJP, so that ultimately the DMK government is dismissed on one pretext or another. The Trinamul Congress, too, is working on a similar strategy. The parties in opposition to the BJP are splintered. And Congress has reportedly decided not to try to capture power until it legitimately earns it. That legitimacy can arise either through an election or through the BJP falling on its own.

Jayalalitha has the option to pull out her support and let the government fall. That process can lead tocoalescence of ideas on forming an alternate government. But one has to wait until the Parliament assembles again to see if this would happen. And in the meanwhile, we need to watch the patch-up initiatives by the BJP leadership.

Therefore, I do not see any threat to stock markets until the time of voting the Finance Bill, that is a little beyond July 3. And in the meanwhile, UTI is in the process of shoring up its unit values by market purchases at low prices. Perhaps it is not just coincidence that Sebi has also decided to review the margin system from July 6 onwards. So finally when you take count, the investor might as well hold the courage and hold on to his longs and let his profits run till the end of next week. And watch the developments thereafter. Anything is possible in the political scene.

But much is in stake for the stockplayer to figure out the probability of various outcomes. In my view the probability of Jayalalitha pulling out her support next week is not great. The investor mightas well take courage and hold out.