In Asia, the scene is worse. Lack of action on the part of small entrepreneurs to deal with the millennium bug is mainly due to their inability to grasp the magnitude of the problem. Many feel that their systems will not be affected severely and that there is time enough to solve the problem.

But experts feel otherwise. At a seminar organised by the Confederation of Indian Industry on ‘Preparing countries to face the millennium bug’ experts from various organisations stressed on the universal nature of the problem which mightadversely affect any company irrespective of the size or place. Solutions should also be worked out fast as it also has to be tested to ensure its workability.

“There are a few misconceptions about the Year 2000 problem like the belief that it is a problem of the West and also that the small-scale sector is immune to it," says Subodh Bhargava, chairman, Eicher Goodearth Limited.

This feeling arises as the West is more industrialised, more automated and has more proliferation of IT. Bhargava says that no study conducted so far on the problem suggests that the intensity of the problem is proportional to IT penetration. “The problem might take a dangerous shape in India as it has in the Western countries."

As a majority of firms, irrespective of size, use computers today, it is wrong to assume that small companies are immune to the Y2K problem. Bhargava believes that small enterprises are more vulnerable to the bug as the level of awareness and concern among them is extremely low.

Some units feel thatthe problem can be fixed at the last minute. But, Partha Iyengar, country manager, Gartner Group, India, says that it is not only unwise but fatal to think this way. “The problem is easy to understand but it is quite difficult to make it go away. So, one should start working on it this minute".

To start working on the problem, what is required first is a complete understanding of its nature. Many users don’t know whether their systems would be affected or not. An expert assessment by in-house department or by external supplier or consultant will be necessary. However, most businesses are likely to face some kind of problem or the other at the close of the century.

There is no quick fix solution to the problem too and there is no use waiting for one to come up. The sheer volume and variety of ways in which dates are used means that no clever answer is possible. Even in those cases where the process of making changes to applications programmes is straightforward, the whole process of finding the dates,checking, changing and then testing is very time-consuming.

Each and every use of the date has to be identified and the complete system thoroughly checked. All the databases which run on the application need to be checked and converted to a four-digit date.

In some cases, where date systems may have been used for other purposes, alternative solutions will need to be completely changed because internal clocks will not be compliant.

D N Prahlad, former head of Y2K practice, Infosys Technologies Ltd., says that firms need to do contingency planning to deal with the problem. “As we have not taken concrete steps so far it is kind of an emergency situation now."

According to Girish Vaidya, the first step to go about being Y2K compliant is to develop an inventory of the systems a company has. “One has to see in how many systems the Y2K problem exists to know the exact extent of the problem. This will give an idea as to the amount of effort required to solve the problem.

When the problem is identified, thefirm must decide which equipment and systems it wishes to keep, the ones it wishes to convert by processing the data correctly and the ones it wishes to replace.

Then the firm must decide upon its compliance method. Varun Jha, director-IT, Tata Iron and Steel Company, feels that taking the help of various tools available in the market can help. “A firm can also develop its own tool to solve the problem as per its requirement."

The next step is to appoint converters to carry out the conversions. As there is a shortage of skilled people in this line it is very important to ensure that a firm has a supply of the required manpower. Finally, a unit should conduct thorough testing to ensure that the solution works. Warns Lalit Sawhney, chairman, CII Core Group on Y2K, “Our deadline is not January 1, 2000, but January 1, 1999, as we require at least one year for testing."It is not enough just to take care of one’s business, but a firm also has to ensure that its suppliers and other parties who are connected tothe business are Y2K compliant. Says Vaidya, “A person has to ensure that whoever he comes in contact with is as aware of the problem as he is."

Opportunities galore in the domestic market

The Indian market needing Y2K solutions is estimated to be in excess of Rs 400 crore. Though some banks and financial institutions have off late started working on the problem, a lot many companies need to take the Y2K challenge more seriously, say Nasscom officials. "Uptil now Indian companies were looking at Y2K in terms of providing solutions to the rest of the world. It is high time for companies to look inwards," feels Vijay K Thadani, president, NIIT Ltd.

Thadani does not feel that India has missed the Y2K bus, as is believed in certain quarters of the industry. "India might have started late, but Y2K is something that is going to linger on beyond year 2000. India can still take the next bus."

The Y2K problem presents a huge commercial opportunity, never encountered in the history of software industry.According to an estimate by USA-based Software Productivity Research, Inc., the worldwide cost of debugging the problem and putting all information systems back on rails would be in the order of US$ 1,510 billion, which is much in excess of the present size of the software industry worldwide, pegged at approximately $280 billion. Of this, the United States offers most business opportunities with a market worth $260 billion.

-- Sudipto Dey

Some Y2K site addresses

Year 2000 Internet Site address
http://2000.jbaworld.com
http://headlines.yahoo.com/Full--Coverage/Tech?Year 2000Problem
http://homepages.ioi.ie/-pobeirne/year2000.htm
http://194.129.243.97/home/industry/year2000.htm
http://www.2k-times.com/y2k.htm
http://www.auto2000.ndirect.co.uk/
http://www.bcs.org.uk/milen.htm
http://www.compinfo.co.uk/y2k/htm
http://www.everything2000.com/
http://www.iee.org.uk/2000risk/
http://www.it2000.com/
http://www.leeds.ac.uk/y2k
http://www.ncc.co.uk
http://www.open.gov.uk/ccta/mill/mbhome.htm
http://www.open.gov.uk/bug2000
http://www.support2000.com
http://www.taskforce2000.co.uk
http://www.year2000.com