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Tuesday, June 30, 1998

Cocoa traders see further fall in prices 

REUTERS  
LONDON, June 29: Liffe coffee starts the week with the USDA's Brazilian crop estimate to digest, while cocoa traders await further price falls, even if technical analysts are not so sure.

Cocoa traders said they saw no end in sight to the tumble that had slashed London futures prices from 1,183 stg a tonne on May 15 to 1,046 on Friday.But technical analysts reckoned selling pressure had diminished and saw cocoa consolidating.

September cocoa fell 28 stg last week on fresh, technically driven speculative fund selling against a background of bearish fundamentals.Renewed sterling strength against the German mark and French franc was driving continental buyers away.

Continued rain in Ivory Coast, which should help the 1998/99 Ivorian crop recover from its slow start, and reports that arrivals of the 1997/98 crop were slightly ahead of the 1996/97 total at the same stage were also bearish.Traders said prospects for the main crop would not be come relatively clear until August or even September.

However,some said speculators and investment funds were now short on the London market and would have to buy cover when the market rebounded.

"I wonder who is going to sell to them -- the people they have been selling to now?" a physical cocoa trader said.

"I think the market will go up quickly then. It's very dangerous to sell this market short."

Coffee traders were still watching for any sign of frost in producing areas, even though weather forecasters had refused to cooperate. Unless frost did hit the crop in Brazil, they expected the market to consolidate at the lower range down to $1,600 in which it settled last week after a series of falls on crop pressure.

"No frost or freeze in sight for this week. Conditions will be favourable for harvests," Weather Services Corporation said in its report on Brazil coffee weather on Monday morning.

The USDA's first estimate for 1998-99 Brazilian coffee production, released after the close of trading on Friday, was in line with expectations.

The USDA pegged outputat 35.8 million 60-kg bags, up from a revised 23.5 million the previous season.

"The Brazil number is in line with everyone's guesses," said Salomon Smith Barney analyst Walter Spilka. "The market's not going to react to this on Monday."

Estimates for Brazilian production in 1998/99 have ranged between 30 million and 40 million bags, with the bulk of forecasts near 35-36 million.

LIFFE white sugar prices received a fillip last week from offtake by Iraq and Syria and a smaller than expected 16.03 million tonne 1998/99 beet sugar crop forecast by the European Commission.

Sugar had been lifted by Iraqi and Syrian purchases, and by the European Commission's apparent unwillingness to shift more sugar onto export markets.Keen bidding for EU white sugar at the weekly tender was also viewed constructively.

And with New York raws futures breaking higher after a long period in the doldrums, the stage could be set for a rally, traders said.

But more physical offtake would be needed for the move to beanything more than a corrective bounce, they added.

Technical traders reckoned there could be some speculative interest after two weeks of consolidation just above $250 a tonne, basis August, had turned some indicators positive.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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