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Tuesday, June 30, 1998

Indicators show the market has entered into a bullish phase 

K Seshadri  
The Sensex gained 120 points on Monday to close at 3289.56. According to technical indicators, the market has entered into a bullish phase for both the short term as well as the long term players.

The market opened with the Sensex at 3171.25, some three points higher than last week's close. But within the first hour of trading, the market gained confidence and the Sensex moved up to 3235-levels. After consolidation around this level for over two hours, the index started a steady rise, punctured only by marginal bouts of profit taking. Towards the last ninety minutes of trading, the index made a climb from 3270 to 3290. Unlike other days, Mondya's jump of the index was one of steadiness and was not marked by last hour spikes.

The current upmove can take the index to the level of 3450, if the upsurge remains intact. However, the dynamics will change when the current trading rules are modified.

Every single scrip in the Sensex made a gain on Monday. At the BSE, the advances-declines-same ratio was692:328:134 on Monday as compared to the ratio of 538:711:169 on Friday. The volumes are even more impressive. The ratio here was 568:19:0.51 as against Friday's ratio of 185:470:12. In other words, the market indicates that the bullish sentiment has vastly improved over the position on Friday across many scrips, with volumes.

This position was confirmed at the NSE as well. At the NSE the advance:decline:same ratio for scrips was 513:382:82 as against Friday's figure of 380:553:79. Volume was the ratio was 681:69:0.99 as against Friday's figure of 259:542:7.54. The market has strengthened across-the-board on the back of the current trading rules. Gains in prices have not only been in pivotals but across many scrips.

Tuesday could see some profit taking. But with the new rules for trading slated to start only on July 6, BSE operators may well use any price depression due to NSE week ending to pick up for both intra-day and intra-week trade. On the fundamental scenario, the Jayalalitha factor now appears tohave been digested.

The visit of American senators might also influence market view. The news that Pakistan was planning a first nuclear strike on India could be seen by marketmen to help towards relaxing of US pressure on sanction. These two could help improve market sentiment. And market may now be able to cope better when Sebi lifts short selling restrictions. ÿ

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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