Bangkok, July 2: While almost everything has gone wrong for Thailand since its worst economic crisis began last July, its vibrant farm commodities sector stands out as a rare, bright spot with great potential for the future.Not only has the resilient farm sector produced enough to feed the cash-strapped nation's 60 million people, ensuring food security in a time of crisis, the sector's massive exports are also raking in valuable foreign exchange.
Despite the ongoing crisis, Thailand will be able in the near to medium term to retain its status as the world's leading exporter of rice, rubber, sugar, tapioca, chicken and shrimps, analysts say.
The weaker the baht, which has shed almost 40 per cent of its value in dollar terms since it was effectively devalued last July, the better farm commodity exports -- which require little or no imported inputs -- will perform.
"The situation would have been much worse if Thailand had to import food like Indonesia or the Philippines. The fact that we are a net foodexporter has helped cushion the impact of the crisis," said a senior commerce ministry official.
"Of course prices are rising, but I don't think we have come anywhere close to the point when Thais will riot against surging food prices or loot shops. Food security is there," she said.
The current economic turmoil has pushed up food prices in tandem with higher transportation costs as the weak baht inflates petrol bills.
Rice is the star among Thai commodity exports, with industry analysts increasing their projections for sales this year.
During January-April, Thailand exported 2.4 million tonnes of rice, earning 33.60 billion baht ($880 million), compared with 1.5 million tonnes which earned 14.97 billion baht in the same period in 1997.
Analysts recently revised export projection for calendar 1998 to 5.8-6.0 million tonnes, up from the 5.3-5.5 million tonnes predicted earlier, due to robust world demand.
Shrimp exports rose 14.2 percent in dollar terms during the first quarter of 1998 to $357million or 17.01 billion baht. This year, it could fetch more than 60 billion baht in foreign exchange, industry sources said.
Chicken exports soared 20 percent to 180,000 tonnes during the first three months of this year versus 150,000 tonnes during the corresponding period in 1997.
Rubber exports during the first three months of 1998 rose over 11 per cent to 590,000 tonnes, compared with 530,000 tonnes in the same period last year.
But weak world prices pushed rubber export values down in dollar terms to $423 million, although in baht terms the value improved slightly.
Industry sources said that, although the outlook for commodities was still good, there were certain risks that could undermine exports.
A domestic liquidity crunch and high interest rates could erode the country's competitiveness near-term if the problems are allowed to continue unresolved, analysts said.
The sugar industry, for example, is struggling to grapple with liquidity problems which could restrict acreage in the currentplanting season, which is just getting under way.
The government has stepped in to borrow $80 million to lend to sugar growers to ease the cash shortage and prevent problems in the 1998/9 crushing season which starts in November.
Environmental concerns have also clouded the outlook for shrimp exports after the government agency issued a ban on inland shrimp farming on purely environmental grounds.
However, most shrimps harvested for export come from farms in coastal areas.
The labour issue is also casting a shadow over the farm sector, especially the rice industry, industry sources said. The government plans to send home the low-wage illegal foreign workers on whom the industry has been heavily dependent.
Major rice mills have threatened to stop milling rice next month to press the government to review the ban, saying the policy is unrealistic and poses a grave threat to Thailand's ability to meet export obligations.
"If the labour issue is not resolved, Thailand's status as the world's top riceexporting country is unlikely to be sustained," said Apichart Amatayakul, a manager of the Thai Rice Mills Association.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.