The initial spurt at time of reports on SCB turned out to be short-lived one and the scrip is currently hovering at Rs 103 levels. Consider this, the company has drugs controller-general of India's approval to export 39 tonnes of SCB. Though the in-principle approval has no time limit attached to it, company sources say that going by the enquiries received by them, it could be possible to export the entire approved quantity even in a year's time.

Even a minimum realisation of $3000 per kg would mean the company's turnover should jump by Rs 503 crore compared to its current level of Rs 200 crore in a short span of time.

Why then has the market not reacted to this news in a positive manner? While speaking to a cross a sectionof analysts and brokers, the common reason that came out was `scepticism'. Moreover, many felt that there was lack of clarity on many fronts with regard to the product's pricing, quantum that can be exported, number of players who will enter the market, etc which has forced them to adopt a wait and watch attitude.

The pricing of SCB continues to be a mystery. Export realisation of SCB is estimated to range between $3000 per kg to $20,000 per kg. It is not clear as to how much Orchid can realise and besides, several other companies are expected to foray into this market segment in the next six to 12 months and possibly undercut prices. If Orchid does manage to beat the market by exporting SCB first, then it can enjoy the fruits of a market leader till others join the bandwagon.

In addition, there are doubts about the quantum of exports. While Ranbaxy has sought approval for 150 kgs and Cipla for 12 kgs, the 39 tonne approval sought by Orchid seems to have surprised the market. Can it really achieve thatvolume is what uppermost in the minds of the analysts. Will there be so much demand for the product, they ask, especially in the context that Viagra is causing side-effect problems.

Analysts feel that the company should take steps to dispel these doubts and explain what their plans are, expected realisation, export destination, etc. They, however, accept that Orchid's discounting could improve manyfolds if it is successful in manufacturing and exporting SCB. The market is probably waiting for things to happen, they add.

Orchid which was once the darling of the markets lost out after it failed to maintain the phenomenal growth rates posted in the initial years. The company's decision to enter the formulation segment was also not taken positively by the market as it entails immediate expenditure while the returns are not immediate.