As monsoon has set in and procurement of wheat has come to an end, the final picture of wheat production, arrival in mandies and contribution to central pool has emerged. The figures make interesting reading as the total production has come down, but contribution to the central pool from Punjab and Haryana has gone up despite the fact that the two states have missed the bumper wheat targets this rabi season.

Total production of wheat in Punjab this year 1998-99 has been 128 lakh tonnes as against 136.78 lakh tonnes last year. So much so, that Sangrur district, to which union food minister Surjit Singh Barnala belongs to, in Punjab which for the last almost one decade was at the top of thelist of wheat producers has shown a decline in production.

During 1997-98, total production of wheat in Sangrur was 9,90,000 metric tonnes. However, during 1998-99, it has falled to 9,20,991 metric tonnes.

Ferozepur now occupies the top slot with a production figure of 9,98,241 metric tonnes. Experts say that decline in Sangrur from 9.90 lakh metric tonnes to 9.20 lakh metric tonnes was indicative of fall in production.In Haryana, the final figure of production is 75 lakh tonnes during 1998-99 against 78.02 lakh tonnes during 1997-98.

For several years,Punjab and Haryana have been contributing more than 50 per cent or more than half of national procurement. The most interesting feature noted during this rabi season is that while there is decline of about one million tonnes of wheat in total wheat production, Punjab and Haryana have contributed more wheat to the central pool.

Wheat arrival in mandies in Punjab during this procurement season has been to the tune of about 62.50 lakh tonnes. Againstthis, various procurement agencies have procured 61.41 lakh tonnes of wheat. About one lakh tonnes has been purchased by traders. Against this year's figures, last year total arrivals were about 65 lakh tonnes and procurement by different agencies was about 60 lakh tonnes while about 5.00 lakh tonnes had been procured by traders.

Haryana has surprised even the experts as during 1997-98, it contributed about 22.90 lakh tonnes of wheat to central pool. This year (1998-99), the final figure has been about 31.44 lakh tonnes. The increase has been about 8.00 lakh tonnes in the central pool. Uttar Pradesh procured about 20.74 lakh tonnes while Rajasthan procurement was about 6.66 lakh tonnes. This more than double of the figure of last year at 3.19 lakh tonnes. Madhya Pradesh has a figure of 5.27 lakh tonnes procured for central pool as against just 1.07 lakh tonnes last year.

Agriculture experts point out that the farmers did not do any hoarding of wheat this season.The reason for this is believed to be adecision to import about 1.5 million tonnes of wheat from Australia at a rate of 142.5 US dollars per tonne. There entire deal which generated a never ending controversy which the Central Bureau of Investigation is investigating has cost the centre around Rs 984 crore.

There was a lurking fear in the minds of farmers that market price might come down in the wake of imports. Another reason was the weather which has been uncertain this season. Little doubt that farmers harvested wheat crop in about 21 days this time in comparison to normal time of about one and a half month.

One aftermath of increase in procurement of wheat in Punjab, Haryana and other states has been that buffer stock position in the country is looking up. Th Food Corporation of India has a buffer stock of 15.92 million tonnes of wheat. Interestingly last year till June,1997, the buffer stock of wheat was 10.96 million tonnes.

The Food Corporation of India officials who gave figures of buffer stock for the last three years say thatduring 1996-97, wheat procurement was 8.18 million tonnes in the country for central pool. It went up to 9.08 million tonnes during 1997-98 and this year 1998-99 it was 12.56 million tonnes. Breakup of this figure of 12.56 million tonnes is, about 3.13 million tonnes wheat procured by the Food Corproation of India and 9.43 million tonnes procured by state agencies.

This is 35 per cent more than the previous year. The figure of wheat buffer stock of 13.10 million tonnes would have been normal but the buffer stock has gone up to 15.92 million tonnes till the first week of June and is likely to be around 16.00 million tonnes as the procurement which is almost over comes to an end. This is despite the fact that bumper crop has missed the main wheat producing states of Punjab and Haryana.

Punjab development commissioner RN Gupta and Haryana secretary (agriculture) Naseem Ahmed agree that production had come down this year but are almost unanimous in their views that though the two states have missed targets ofbumper crops, the catastrophe has been averted.

However, union food minister Surjit Singh Barnala has repeatedly said that there is a shortfall of about 4.5 million tonnes of wheat. Last year the national figure was 69.3 million tonnes in the country. Viewed in the light of observation made by the union food minister, it is clear that besides Punjab and Haryana, the two main wheat producing states, the others - Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh - even had a bad crop this rabi season.

Experts point out that continuous spell of inclement weather following disturbance which meteorological experts opined as "western disturbance" had adversely affected wheat crop at the grain formation and ripening stage.

Widespread rains accompanied with strong surface winds caused damage to standing crops. Wheat was sown on an area of about 32.40 lakh hectares.

Scientists at the Directorate of Wheat Research Institute at Karnal point out that in Punjab the wheat yield had been about 4.2 tonnes per hectares while in Haryanait was 3.8 tonnes per hectare and other states were way behind. Now with wheat production in these two states declining, scientists are worried that the country would need at least 20 per cent more grains per head to meet the increased requirement in 2000 when the population is expected to touch 972 million. India was ranked the second largest wheat producing country after China in the world. China produces 19 per cent of world's wheat while India produces about 12 per cent.

Another interesting feature of wheat sales this year is that traders from Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan were not showing any interest in the produce in mandies and most of the wheat had been procured by government agencies for the central pool and a negligible quantity by traders.

According to sources in the agriculture department, the reason was that Punjab had given a price of Rs 510 per quintal for wheat to farmers while the price in other states like Maharashtra was Rs 490 per quintal.

The decline in wheat productionclearly shows that the country is heading for a wheat crisis with farmers having no stocks of wheat and prices of wheat flour going up to Rs 10 a kg in retail market as on now. Unless the government released wheat in the open market as per the policy that was in vogue before 1996 when the decision was reversed following a wheat scam, the prices may further spiral.

At present wheat is released by the centre for PDS (public distribution system) and targeted public distribution system for people below poverty line and for both the schemes about seven million tonnes wheat is required per year. The government can still release fair quantity of wheat in the open market in view of excellent buffer stock position to keep the prices under check.