With producer-exporter countries like Kenya and Sri Lanka already aggressive in the world market, the industry has chalked out two major blocks of countries for channelling most of its exports.

Poland and Russia as a block along with the West Asian and North African countries (WANA) countries have been identified as the key areas for the export market.

The industry's dependence on the west Asian market is warranted by an increase in the export target by almost 6 million kgs for the WANA countries, to 44 million kgs in the current year. Although the industry continues to treat the Russian and the CIS countries as its thrust area, it has reduced its dependence on Russia by an almost 10 million kg drop in its targeted exports to that country. It hascompensated this by a 6 million targeted rise in Poland.

Anticipating the drop in exports in the European markets, the industry has slashed its export targets for UK, and also gone in for a marginal decrease in export targets for Germany too.

As per industry estimates, much depends on the exports achieved in the present quarter -- starting July to September which happens to the most crucial for the entire year. The industry has set a export target of 62 million kgs during the three months followed by a 51 million kg target in the next quarter.

It has been traditionally seen that over 30 per cent of the exports are met in this quarter of the year, along with production figures which peak during the period. The first part of the year has shown positive export signals but market sources indicate that fierce competition may be brewing as Kenya and Indonesia have already been making inroads in the European market.

According to a study by the industry, India's traditional markets like UAE, Poland, Germanyand Egypt should be adequately served. The industry has asked the Tea Board to play a crucial role in this effort. This could be achieved by arranging for periodic supply market information to the exporters, by going in for regular buyer-seller meets.

The latest statistics reveal that almost all tea producing countries have reported a higher crop in the early months of 1998. Available records suggest that there is no threat of unfavourable weather conditions and henceforth a fierce competition is predicted for the export markets. Price would thus be the crucial determinant in the export market.

Kenya, which has bounced back in the market, would try to regain its lost share in the market.

The Indian tea industry recorded a strong export performance in 1997 in the wake of a global shortage. It exported 203 million kgs surpassing the previous years's figure of 162 million kgs by 41 million kgs registering an increase of 2.5 per cent. In 1997, over 90 per cent of the increase in tea exports was accounted bythe growth in exports to Russia alone.

There was a 45 mkg increase in CIS countries over the same period.

This was significant, especially at the backdrop of exports to other countries which either remained at the same level or registered a decline.Exports to the UK and Netherlands witnessed a marginal increase. India exported 26 million kg and 4.6 mkg to these countries respectively. Iraq, too registered a small rise.

The industry's hopes on countries like Iran, Germany and Poland had backfired. Iran apparently, although promising a contract of 9 million kg, could not honour its commitment, as a result failed to open LCs altogether.Although reasons for the Polish downtrend of 2 mkg is slightly difficult to gauge, the German decline of 1.2 mkg may hinge on the quality parameter. Exports to USA have remained at a constant of 4.6 million kg.

Although the industry has reported a 23 per cent growth in volume terms for the months of March, April and May, in the current year, much depends on whether theindustry would be able to sustain this trend for the next two quarters of the year.