The gain of over 5 lakh bales comes from the central region which had some new last fruiting, though of poor quality, that gave boost to the crop estimate for this region by about 10.50 lakh bales. This covered up for an estimated loss of 5 lakh bales from Punjab, Haryana, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.

The crop estimates for the states, thus, stand revised for Maharashtra to 20.50 lakh bales (from previous estimate of 15 lakh bales), Gujarat 41 (38), MP 21 (19), AP 23 (22), Karnataka 7.5 (9), Tamil nadu 5.5 (6), Punjab 7.5 (9), Harayana 9 (10.50), Rajasthan 11.50 (11.50).

Without changing opening balance estimate at 30.38 lakh bales and lowering cotton import estimate by 1 lakh bales to 4 lakh bales, CAB gave estimate of total availability of cotton at 187.63 lakh bales as against the previous estimate of 183.38 lakh bales.However the revised estimate of total availability still falls much short of actual availability at 207.93 lakh bales last cotton year.

On the demand side too, there has been downward movement. Mill consumption is estimated to be 146 lakh bales as against 150.41 lakh bales actually consumed last year. Non-mill consumption would be 9 lakh bales as compared to 11.86 lakh bales and SSI consumption 6.50 as against 7.89 lakh bales. The exports would be only 4 lakh bales. Thus the total outgo is estimated at 165.50 lakh bales leaving a closing stock of 22.13 lakh bales. And half of this stock is likely to be below average quality stock.

The crop estimate includes loose cotton production estimate which so far was being estimated by the CAB on a rough basis. There is some cotton which goes from the farmers to the mills in the nearby area without going through the procedure of pressing into the bales. To estimate it systematically, CAB set up a sub-committee for estimating loose cotton production in the countryunder the chairmanship of MB Lal, chairman of Cotton Corporation of India with members representing Indian Cotton Mills Federation, East India Cotton Association and Textile Commissioner's office.

The committee asked Ahmedabad Textile Industries Research Association (ATIRA) to conduct a survey on loose cotton consumption which was submitted a month ago. Last week, the committee adopted the report and sent its final recommendation to the textile commissioner. The loose cotton is estimated at 5.75 lakh bales by CAB.