``Ghanaians like beer as much as their neighbours do, but presently they can't afford it,'' he said. At 880,000 hectolitres in 1997, Ghana's beer market is small but industry analysts agree it has great potential.

An investment banker Yofi Grant with Databank Financial Services Ltd in Accra believes the economy is the key.

``If government sustains its current direction as regards stabilising the economy, the coming years are going to be very interesting for the breweries,'' he said. ``Beer will becomemore affordable, volumes will go up and it seems the breweries have confidence in Ghana's economy as they are investing heavily,'' he added.

Wilkinson of Guinness expects annual growth in the beer market of five to 10 per cent in the next three years, if inflation continues to come down.

``In 1995 we had 20 per cent growth in the beer market, but in October 1996 we had to increase the price to keep up with inflation and demand fell dramatically,'' he said. Year-on-year inflation currently stands at around 20 per cent, down from 48.4 per cent in July 1996. The other big problem is tax.

In 1996, Ghana's breweries paid 58 billion cedis ($25 million) in excise duties and 22 billion cedis in sales tax. The total turnover in the industry was 176.7 billion.

The government has shown some sympathy, and beer duty was cut earlier this year to 65 per cent from 75.8 per cent. That meant another price increase was averted but the reduction was too small to have much impact on sales. Commercial manager Seth Ayreeat Accra Brewery Limited, said sales could jump more than 20 per cent if the excise duty was cut 20 per cent.

Failing such a reduction, Aryee predicts ``not much growth'' in the coming three years.

``It's suicidal. The average Ghanaian cannot even afford one bottle a day with the daily minimum wage standing at 2,000 cedis,'' he said.

The government-controlled price of a bottle of 0.625 litres of lager is 1,650 cedis.

The brewers may be complaining, but at the same time they seem to be positioning themselves for an upturn in the market.

Last October, Heineken paid around $7 million for the loss-making Achimota Brewery Company Limited (ABC), with its one-million-hectolitres a year brewing house. This month, it merged the business with Kumasi Brewery Ltd and shares in the new Ghana Breweries Limited (GBL) will replace Kumasi on the Accra bourse from mid-July. Heineken has made available some $4 million in investment funds for GBL, even though the group already has total brewing capacity in Ghana of 1.3million hectolitres a year.

The company is market leader with 45 per cent of total sales. Also in October, expanding South African Breweries bought a 51.12 per cent stake in Accra Breweries Limited from Swiss Overseas Breweries Limited for an undisclosed sum.

Accra Breweries has capacity of 700,000 hectolitres and, with over 250,000 hectolitres sold in 1997, has 29 per cent of the market.

The company made a net profit of 2,360 million cedis in the year to March 1997 after 601 million in 1995-96.

Aryee would not reveal his company's plans for the future, except to say that the South African owners were ready to take on the opposition.

Meanwhile, Guinness has just begun a 15-month, $17.4 million programme to expand its brewing capacity to an annual 450,000 hectolitres, a 50 per cent increase on the present 300,000 hectolitres.

In 1996 it invested $10 million in a computerised bottling line, bringing bottling capacity to 400,000 hectolitres. With a market share of 26 per cent, Guinness Ghana made anet profit of 11.8 billion cedis in 1996, up from 8.1 billion cedis in 1995. Its return on capital is 27 per cent.

``We are forecasting more profit growth. As soon as we have the capacity we will introduce new products,'' said Wilkinson.

``The economy is a big factor. A lot depends on the government's policy to further reduce inflation, currency depreciation and duties, '' he added.