Trading sources attribute the sharp uptrend in prices partly to the budget. But there were several other reasons which contributed to the price rise, the most important one being seasonal factors, crop failures and the consequent loss of production.

Amit Sachdeva, member of the Indian Poultry Farmers' Association, says the price increases are mostly due to seasonal factors. Like in the case of mutton, during summer, production was down and supply suffered. As the weather improves, production will pick up and the situation may not be as bad.

The July prices of mutton (goat, sheep etc) have been around Rs 100-Rs 120 a kilogramme whereas dressed chicken has been ruling around Rs 70-80 per kg.Beef may have been ruling around Rs 35 per kg, according to AmitSachdeva.

Regarding the skyrocketing prices of fruits and vegetables which have become luxuries to most Indians of late, sources at Azadpur fruit and vegetable market again attribute the price-rise to seasonal factors rather than the budget of 1998-99.

In fact, certain vegetables like green chillies and capsicum (Shimla mirch) have not been reaching Azadpur market for well over two to three months now, according to a trading source who requested anonymity.

However, sources acknowledge that prices have risen as compared to the prices that were ruling around, say April or May. For instance, ginger was being sold for around Rs 1,200-1,250 per bag of 60 kg on July 8.

Likewise, tomato was ruling around Rs 300-350 per a 15-kg box on July 8. In any case, since vegetables have not been reaching the market in significant volumes it is difficult to make a proper comparison, the Azadpur trading sources explain.

The story of grains and pulses is no different. For some reason or the other, nobody seems toattribute the price-rise to the union budget. Shyam Sunder Gupta, president of Delhi Grain Merchants' Association (DGMA), refuses to buy the theory that the budget was responsible for the rise in prices.

According to the DGMA chief, the price-rise is attributable to the drastic loss of crop during the year when there were no rains when required and excessive rains when the crops did not need rain.

As a result most commodities suffered a production loss to the extent of 50 to 60 per cent or even more in certain cases.

Tuar dal (arhar), for instance, was ruling around Rs 1,800-2020 per quintal on July 8 as against around Rs 1,600 during April/May 1998. So there is a price rise no doubt but SS Gupta again attributes the price increase to the loss of production.

The DGMA chief says that even international markets have shown a production decline this year. Pulses supply from Myanmar, China and Turkey has remained sluggish.