The sources said the unexpected shortfall will have a negative impact on forex earnings. With international prices extremely volatile and the rupee-dollar rate fluctuating, the exact impact on the industry cannot be guesstimated.

Revenue from coffee exports during the last fiscal was around Rs 1,616.86 crore compared with Rs 1,467.08 crore in the previous year. During the same period the quantity-wise export declined to 1,69,823 tonne from 1,81,295 tonne.

The shortfall in Arabica could not have come at a worser time for the Coffee Board. Arabica accounts for a major chunk of the export revenues largely due to its high prices. In May the Board had estimated that the Arabica production would be in the vicinity of 1,00,040 tonne and robusta at 1,30,460 tonneduring the current fiscal.

The Blossom estimates of the Coffee Board published in May had indicated that the total production of coffee during the current fiscal will be around 230,500 tonnes. This was 4.9 per cent less than the Budwood estimates done by the Board in March. In March 1998 the Board had estimated an all-time high production of around 242,400 tonne.

The delayed monsoon has mainly affected plantations in Karnataka. The state accounts for over 70 per cent of the coffee production in the country followed by Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

Blossom estimates of Arabica in Karnataka had indicated that the production will be 83,100 tonnes. This is now likely to be only around 75,000 tonne. In Kerala the expected arabica crop, according to Blossom estimates, was 1,500 tonnes. There is likely to be no major changes as the state has been receiving good rains.

MC Appaiah, senior official with Allanasons Ltd, a leading exporter in the green coffee segment, said arabica production has been affected mainly inareas like Chikmagalur, Hassan and Coorg.

"We are yet to analyse the monsoon conditions and the impact on the expected coffee production, especially on Arabica. As of now the Board has not received any reports from growers about this.

In Wyanad district of Kerala, one of the largest Robusta cultivating locations the monsoon was reportedly normal," said Coffee Board deputy director (research) S Radhakrishnan. "The Board will, however, review the earlier blossom estimates in September. Before finalising the production target we will take into account the monsoon factor also," he said.