"The market is going to grow at least 10 percent annually, but the pace will be slowing down," said Maciej Zawadzki, one of the authors of a report on the beer market by the Polish independent CASE think-tank.

"In the perspective of five years the dynamics might fall to eight or six per cent...and will be one percentage point lower every year," he added.Analysts estimate Polish beer consumption will grow to between 55 and 60 litres per capita in 2000, from the current 45. The market will be saturated at between 80 and 85 litres per capita, average western Europe consumption.Last year Polish brewers' output reached 18.8 million hectolitres of beer, comparedto 16.5 million in 1996. Output is expected to rise to between 22 and 24 million hectolitres in 2000.

While Polish designer vodkas are the smart order in fashionable New York bars, young Poles are defecting to beer.

Yuppies, crowding Warsaw's modern offices by day and its many flourishing new pubs in the evening, order a glass or two from a large variety of brands or flavours.

In rural areas, where cheap vodka or even cheaper wine has long been the favoured tipple, beer is also gaining popularity. Polish brands are more popular than foreign because they are cheaper.

Vodka consumption fell to 3.8 litres per capita in 1993 from six litres in 1980. It has since been stable at about 3.5 litres. Beer consumption rose to 45 litres in 1997 from 30 litres in 1980.

According to the Pentor institute, about 70 per cent of adult Poles drink beer and the biggest beer drinkers are skilled workers and students.Analysts said consumption growth could be faster if the 40 per cent excise tax was reduced and a ban onadvertising alcoholic beer, designed to encourage sobriety, was lifted.

Advertising would put Polish brewers on an equal footing with foreign competitors, who promote beer in foreign television broadcasts available over Polish cable networks. Polish brewers have been resorting to intensively advertising non-alcoholic beer, in bottles similar to the strong stuff, to promote their brands without breaking the law.

The lower house of parliament voted earlier this month to lift the ban on alcoholic beer advertising. This was rejected by the upper house, or senate, which in turn proposed to extend the ban to adverts of alcohol-free beer.

The final decision rests with the lower house, which can overturn the senate's proposals with a majority of 50 per cent plus one vote. The bill also needs president Aleksander Kwasniewski's approval.

Just a few years ago the stereotype of a Polish beer drinker tended to be an uncouth figure telling coarse jokes while swilling at open-air stalls or outside local shops."Theguys by the beer booth," was a term for louts.Although this sight is still common, 20 per cent of beer drinkers enjoy a glass in pubs and the number is growing.

Among teenage beer drinkers, about half choose pubs where local brewers try to draw customers by offering them trendy and cheaper draught brews which are more attractive than foreign beers, most of which are available in bottles and cans.

"Ever more people go out to have a beer, they buy more in pubs than in shops and this can work against Czech and Slovak brewers," said Ewa Radkowska, analyst at ING BSK Asset Management.

Some analysts said Polish brewers might suffer after duty on beer imports from other countries in the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA), as well as those in the European Union, is lifted, as this could double imports to 10 per cent of all beer sold in Poland.

Duties on beers from CEFTA states are set to vanish from early 1999 and Poland, which hopes to join the EU around 2003, is likely to free up imports fromthe bloc a couple of years before then.

"I believe this danger is under-estimated, especially regarding Czech beer, which has a very good reputation in Poland and will be cheaper than Polish beer," said Jaroslaw Pietrzak of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell. Polish brewers are prepared for the competition with their established position on the market, known brand names and well developed distribution networks.