In an era of economic uncertainties, the Union commerce minister Ramakrishna Hegde's intention to boost exports assumes importance. The 20 per cent export growth target if achieved can mitigate the effects of sanctions and improve the sentiment on the economy and currency, which in turn will maintain foreign investors' confidence.For India, there is a lot to learn from China. Chinese Exports are at present for ahead of India's. A study of the growth of China's exports shows that after defence, it laid emphasis on exports in its national policy. It tried to keep workers involved in exports fully motivated. Today, China's exports are five times in terms of value in US dollar. The message, therefore, is that all boosting exports should be taken as a challenge, and surely the 20 per cent growth target can be achieved.
Exports must be recognised as the economic defence of our country.The Chinese did everything to woe foreign investment in all possible sectors contributing to the country's exports directly orindirectly. Foreign investments in certain sectors provide employment to a large number of people.
Realising the need of becoming a part of the global economy, China and many other countries changed their attitudes towards foreign-direct investments (FDI) over the past more than a decade. These nations pursued much more open policies.
During the five-year period from 1991 to 1995, the FDI in India has been a poor fraction of that in China.
Percentage-wise investment in India is a little over two per cent of the FDI in China during the same period.
Besides China, FDI in Poland, the Czech Republic, Vietnam, Hungary and the Russian Federation have risen 10 times during these five years. But FDI in India has only doubled during the period.
Little wonder then that the exports from China today are five times the exports from India. There are other benefits of FDI in terms of import- substitution, additional employment, a quality upgradation in the country. Eventually, these lead to further growth ofexports.
The growth of phenomenal exports from China and the extensive flow of FDI into China is the result of an ambitions plan formulated over the years.
Drawing their inspiration from Japan, the Chinese leadership has been working hard and motivating people to contribute to achieving prosperity through exports. Another very important lesson we must learn from China is that if your prices are competitive, the world opens up as a market. The factors that make a product competitive include productivity, low cost of finance, fast movement of goods produced and removal of bureaucratic and other bottlenecks. But the most important is a favourable exchange rate.A marked decline in the export growth to 5.3 per cent in 1996-97 and 2.6 per cent in 1997-98 is a cause for concern, as there was a strong growth of between 18.4 per cent and 20.7 per cent in the preceding three years. The main reason for the slowdown was the loss of competitiveness of Indian products, owing to the rupee's appreciation in real termsduring this period. The 10-country real effective exchange rate in 1994 was 54.67 (base 1985=100), but in 1997, it rose to 56.67.
The government must ensure that the rupee's value is not kept at a higher level through monetary maneuvers. At the same time, the market sentiment should not be allowed to create a volatility. Such a management calls for close study of all international currencies.
The government can, thus, play an enormous rule in boosting the morale of exporters.
It is heartening to that Hegde has taken up the challenge of achieving the export growth target of 20 per cent during the current year. His efforts to seek support from the other related ministries demonstrate his seriousness on the issue. The success of his mission undoubtedly will depend on how far his cabinet colleagues and the bureaucracy are willing to contribute to it.
Our embassies and consulates abroad can play a very important role in augmenting the cause of exports. These offices are located in prominent businesscentres in most countries. The commercial officers can collect market information and make the data available to exporters who went to rely on the modern international-marketing techniques for sustaining their exports. Instead of buyers sourcing the product from the production centre, it will be in the larger interests of business for the exporter to go out and sell his product to those who need. If the exporter gets adequate and updated data on the prospective buyers, he knows whom and when to approach. He is bound to acquire through these efforts a better understanding of the market in which he operates. This, in turn, will be conducive to the growth of exports.
The present situation of the commercial offices abroad is far from satisfactory. Often the enquiries remain unanswered. At best, photocopies of the lists of importers with often inadequate addresses are sent by mail, where the enquiry is pursued with repeated faxes or e-mails. It is surprising that many of our commercial offices abroad are nothaving e-mail addresses. What is more surprising is that many others who have an e-mail address choose to reply by mail and sometimes by fax, but rarely by e-mail. Export-promotion councils can also play a dynamic role, which has so far been missing. Being government-sponsored, these councils have better information and support set-up than other business associations.
The Reserve Bank's announcement to reduce the interest rate on incremental pre-shipment and post-shipment credit is a positive step. But it is not enough. It is high time our nation realises that exports constitute the economic office of a country, and must be viewed accordingly.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.