Tokyo, Aug 3: Japan's vehicle sales fell in July for the 16th month in a row, beaten down relentlessly by the country's sputtering economy, but some observers said the market may be close to bottoming out.Sales of cars, trucks and buses fell 8.4 per cent in July from year-ago levels to 432,221 units, the Japan Automobile Dealers Association (JADA) said on Monday.
The data, which exclude so-called mini-vehicles with engines of 660 cc or less, showed that passenger car sales had largely stabilised, supported by a recent slew of new models, but truck sales continued a steep slide as the economic slump curbed corporate spending.
‘‘Truck sales are in free fall, said analyst Stephen Usher for Jardine Fleming Securities in Tokyo. ‘‘Theres not a single reason in the world to be optimistic about trucks.
Analyst Peter Boardman for Warburg Dillon Read, noted that heavy-and medium-duty truck sales were running at their lowest levels in decades.
‘‘Its really scary for the industry, he said. ‘‘The industry mustadjust to a lower level of production. Its going to take much more aggressive restructuring.
He added, however, that the worst may be over and the 40 per cent monthly declines that have battered the heavy truck sector since the beginning of the year may soon ease somewhat.
And with Japans car-makers releasing a steady stream of new and revamped models, analysts said the steady slide in sales could come to a halt by years end.
‘‘There will be more new products and full model changes this year than we've seen for years, Jardine Flemings Usher said. ‘‘Everybody's throwing everything they've got at this market.
‘‘I think the cumulative effect of the new product offerings should put a bottom to the market by the end of the year, he said.
He projected 63 new models in Japan this year, compared with 31 last year and a rough estimate of 38 for next year, although 18 of this years offerings will be new mini-vehicles launched when size restrictions are changed in October.
Analyst Takaki Nakanishi forMerrill Lynch Securities, predicted that the governments economic measures would also aid the market.
‘‘With the government beginning a 16 trillion yen ($110 billion) economic plan, we can expect some effects to kick in from the last (October-to-March) half of the fiscal year, and we may see a gradual recovery, given that were experiencing the worst now, he told Reuters Television.
‘‘Auto sales emerge in direct proportion to the disposable income of consumers, so tax cuts will have a positive impact in the market, he added.
A JADA official said on Monday that Japans vehicle sales were likely to total about 4.70 million units this year, down more than eight per cent from last years 5.11 million.
With sales already down more than 15 per cent in the January-to-July period, however, this would indicate a slight pick-up in sales for the rest of the year.
Of Japans big car-makers, only Mazda Motor Corp and Honda Motor Co managed to boost vehicle sales in July, aided by brisk sales of compact multi-purposewagons like Mazda's Demio and Honda's Capa.
Toyota Motor Corp, despite a modest decline in July, managed to achieve its oft-stated goal of a 40 per cent market share. The industry leader accounted for 40.14 per cent of vehicles sold in Japan last month, although for the first seven months of the year its share fell short at 38.96 per cent.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.