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Wednesday, August 5, 1998

Saudi Arabia may back third round of oil cuts 

Ashraf Fouad  
Kuwait, Aug 4: OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia may back a third round of oil cuts even ahead of Opec's November meeting if world oil prices were still low in late September, a Gulf source said.

"However, if in September Opec made good on its commitments (to cut output) and prices did not improve to much higher than where they are now, then Saudi Arabia and Opec may not have to wait until November" to agree on further cuts, the source who is familiar with official Saudi thinking told Reuters in a telephone interview.

But the Gulf source refused to say what price level the kingdom would like to see oil at in September before moving to seek a new round of cuts.

He said Riyadh would study July and August output figures and if prices were low by late September and OPEC members had abided by the two earlier rounds of cuts, then Opec "might even agree on additional cuts ahead of the November meeting."

Neighbouring Kuwait has said that if North Sea Brent failed to rise by some $4 a barrel to $17 in Novemberthen a cut of at least one million barrels per day (bpd) would be warranted.

Brent is trading some $6 a barrel below year-ago levels.

Other key exporters have said it could be too early to speak of additional cuts after OPEC had agreed to cut supplies to a glutted market by a total of 2.6 million bpd so far this year under deals hammered out in Riyadh, Amsterdam and Vienna.

Saudi Arabia, the worlds largest oil producer and exporter, played a key role in negotiating the agreements.

The Gulf source, responding to comments by Kuwait Oil Minister Sheikh Saud Nasser al-Sabah in an interview with Reuters on Saturday, defended OPEC's Jakarta accord in November to raise the total ceiling by 10 percent to 27.5 million bpd.

Sheikh Saud, who has emerged as a price hawk since coming to office in March, said the Jakarta pact was a mistake which triggered the drop in world oil prices to recent 10-year lows.

The average price for Kuwaiti crudes has dropped by some $7 a barrel to below $10 since the Organisationof the Petroleum Exporting Countries raised the ceiling. The price has improved slightly since the April 1 and July 1 cuts were agreed.

Saudi Arabia "does not appreciate the continuous assertions of Jakarta being the meeting which caused the current price situation...It brought OPEC's quota to what was actually being produced," the source said, referring to overproduction at the time by several members.

"We were trying to curb the violations and to allow those members who did not gain from the higher production level to take a share, one of those members was Kuwait," he said.

Under the accord, Kuwait's quota rose to 2.19 million bpd as of January 1, from two million bpd but after the two rounds of cuts, Kuwait is now producing at 1.98 million bpd.

The Gulf source urged members "to look forward to the future and not with the prism of the past" to achieve the common goal of higher prices "given the fact that we have already settled the issues of the past."

The source said Saudi Arabia "was the countrythat brought people to the table in Riyadh and facilitated OPEC's first accord in March and the second cut which started with the Amsterdam meeting.

"It also hosted a meeting by Gulf Arab oil producers ahead of the second accord. There is no need to remind everybody of the pivotal role Saudi Arabia played in bringing the last OPEC agreement," he added.

Opec ministers are due to hold an ordinary meeting in Viennaon November 25.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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