The cumulative area-weighted average rainfall reached its peak at 107 per cent of the normal for the season in the week ending July 8. Thereafter, it declined to 105 per cent of the normal in the week ending July 15 and to 103 per cent in the next week.

IMD estimated that weak monsoon conditions prevailed for a fortnight after July 8, but towards the end of the month, monsoon strengthened with the formation of low pressure area in west-central Bay of Bengal on July 28 which moved across the central parts of the country.

Earlier on May 25, while issuing its operational long range forecast for the monsoon, IMD had stated that in 1998 rainfall over the country as a whole for the entire monsoon period (June to September) will be99 per cent of the normal with an estimated model error of +/-4 per cent making it the eleventh normal monsoon in succession.

Normal is defined as rainfall within +/-10 per cent of its long period average.

IMDs operational long range forecast also stated that in the current season the quantity of rainfall was likely to be more in the later half of the season as the previous years El Nino effect would have receded by that time.

Making a mid-season assessment now, IDM has not repeated the same. It has just stated that the monsoon would be normal. It has also not forecast as to whether the peak level reached in the week ending July 8 which was 107 per cent of the normal would be surpassed.

Capricious monsoon has, however, not so far adversely affected the crop situation in the country.

The cumulative rainfall over the past two months of the season had been excess to normal in 30 out of 35 meteorological subdivisions and 75 per cent districts of the country. Rainfall was deficient only in 5meteorological sub-divisions namely, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, east Madhya Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir. It was also marginally deficient in Gangetic West Bengal with 21 per cent decline from normal and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura with 25 per cent decline from the normal.

Out of the total of 422 districts, 128 districts had excess rainfall, 182 districts normal, 92 districts deficient and 9 districts had scanty rainfall.

A comparative study of mid-monsoon survey over the past 10 years shows that rainfall was best in 1988 when all the 35 meteorological subdivisions of the country received excess to normal rainfall. The worst was in July-end 1992 when 17 meteorological subdivisions received excess to normal rainfall and 18 subdivisions received deficient to scanty rainfall.

In district-wise distribution of rainfall, July-end 1988 was again the best with 86 per cent of the districts enjoying excess to normal rainfall and only 14 per centfailing.

District-wise rainfall was lowest in July-end 1992 with 47 per cent of the districts having excess to normal rainfall and 53 per cent parching. In July-end 1991, 54 per cent of the district had excess to normal rainfall and 46 per cent deficient to scanty rainfall.