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Thursday, August 13, 1998

Climbing the wall 

 
Whenever the yen plunges, our eyes turn automatically to China. The reason is simple -- if the Chinese decide to devalue the yuan, that'll make steel, textiles, petrochemicals, plastics and chemicals cheaper, with disastrous consequences both for our exports as well as our domestic industry. The message is clear--our main competitor, whether in economics or in politics, is really China, and it is that country which we have to benchmark ourselves with. So far, China has emerged a clear winner. Politically, its military power and prestige is far above ours. They have a permanent seat in the Security Council. Economically, too, its GDP is almost three times ours, it is growing faster than we are, it has put a stop to its population growth, and although its iron rice bowl has been showing cracks in recent years, poverty is lower than in India. In terms of indicators of social development, such as life expectancy, or infant mortality rates or literacy, China scores above us. Clearly, we have much to learn fromthat country.

Whatever be the reason for Indian poverty, there is no doubt that, given the nature of the Chinese economic system, it is government policy which is responsible for Chinese outperformance. The government has been quick to see the changes which have occurred in the Pacific-rim economies, and has learnt useful lessons from them. That is why it has proceeded slowly with financial liberalisation, while ensuring that foreign funds are readily available for direct investment. The value of the yuan is administratively determined, and banks continue to be creatures of the state. Yet, at the same time, the government has been quick to try and restructure the economy, in particular the ramshackle state owned enterprises, of which there are well over 1,50,000. Firms are being merged and privatised. National champions are being built up. For example, in 1997, sales of Chinese PC makes Legend, founded by the Chinese Academy of Sciences overtook those of IBM in China. Most importantly, there are plans toreduce the size of the bureaucracy. The plans for reforming the state-owned units are fraught with the danger of civil unrest, and there are reports of millions of unemployed roaming the Chinese countryside. Reforming the state industries and the banks is not going to be easy. But it is clear that China's authoritarian power structures have helped to push through policies and programmes much faster than in democratic India. We have the people, the entrepreneurial talent and the resources to compete with China. All that is needed is a strong political leadership which ensures that the backing of the Indian state is available to the Indian corporate sector.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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