Aluminium once again fell below $1,300 to $1,280 per tonne. Similarly, copper and zinc prices have also fallen back to $1602 and $1,025 respectively. As the recovery of Japanese yen against the US dollar is still in doubt, demand is not showing as consumers are holding back their plans for purchases, the only question that comes in mind for the metal trading community is: Will base metals fall further?

While fundamentals may still hint at a further fall, the technical position of these metals is not as bad. This is simply because these important metals--copper, aluminium and zinc are close to their strong support base.

Aluminium: For the past 12 months, barring minor corrections, the aluminium prices are on a steady decline and have formed successive lower bottoms.

Although price managed to break the short-termtrendline during the last week of April, it failed to sustain the rally and made new bottoms. In fact, with this failure, the channel has become much more broader.

For a bullish outlook, the price needs to form a higher bottom. In other words, it should not go below the bottom of $1,258 formed last month. If one were to go by the position of oscillators, a fall below this level is unlikely.

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been forming positive divergence, i.e., while the price was seeking low levels, the RSI has formed higher bottoms. This divergence is an indication of declining strength of bear operators.

On the other hand, the white metal also enjoys a good support in the range of $1,230-$1,270. Overall, while a major reversal is unlikely, the metal is unlikely to seek new lows.

Copper: The international copper prices showed a smart rally during the month of April when the Australia's BHP announced a production cut at its Pinto Valley mine in Arizona by 2,53,000 tonne of copperconcentrate and 70,244 tonnes of copper.

At that time, it formed a higher bottom as well as managed to surpass two immediate tops. However, after facing a resistance at $1,890 level, it fell below the trendline and made new bottoms.

The current position suggests that copper enjoys a strong support in the range of $1,560-$1,590 and in all probability will remain above these levels.

In fact, if one were to go by the past track record, in the case of reversal, copper will be in a position to stage a sharp rally. At the current level, the prospects do not appear as gloomy as it were in the past.

Zinc: Like aluminium, zinc prices have also been on a steady decline for the past one year. During the month of August last year, as a result of huge short-covering, zinc prices touched a nine-and-a-half year high of $1,730 on the LME. But by the first quarter of this year, prices were back to the normal level of $1,100-$1,000 per tonne.

Although zinc prices have also formed lower tops and lower bottom,the performance of this metal has been better in comparison to aluminium and copper.

As far as the long-term recovery is concerned, zinc enjoys a strong support in the range of $960-$1,000 and chances of falling below this range are unlikely.

If one were to go by the weekly RSI position, it has formed a higher positive divergence which is a healthy sign. Overall, zinc is better placed compared to other base metals.