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Monday, August 17, 1998

Misleading figures 

 
Whenever the prospects of a recovery in the Indian economy are analysed, commentators draw inspiration from the figures of disbursements recorded by the financial institutions (FIs). These figures have been truly impressive. During the first quarter of the 1998-99, ICICI recorded a 52.5 per cent increase in disbursements, compared with the corresponding period of the previous year. IDBI recorded an increase of 60.4 per cent. These figures are often cited as proof that investment in infrastructure is picking up. It is, however, also true that the figures do not seem to tally with anecdotal evidence, which has led to comments that the data does not add up. After all, if spending on infrastructure had increased to that extent, the steel and cement industries would have fared better than they have.

There are two explanations for the apparent discrepancy. First, attention has rightly been drawn to the fact that the FIs now fund working-capital loans. This would explain the negative growth of around Rs 2,085crore in bank credit during the first quarter of the year, compared with a minor increase of Rs 188 crore during the first three months of 1997-98. The second fact to be taken into account is the external commercial borrowings (ECBs). The ECBs' utilisation was $4,590 million in 1997-98, or roughly around Rs 16,500 crore. Total disbursements by the four FIs (ICICI, IDBI, IFCI and IIBI) in 1997-98 amounted to Rs 37,758 crore. Since ECBs are not available this year, the current year's disbursements by banks as well as FIs need to be compared with the 1997-98 figures plus ECBs. If that is done, the financial institutions' disbursement figures will fall in their proper perspective, and will be found to be perfectly in consonance with anecdotal evidence of a slump in investment.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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