The nine Financial institutions polled produced an average flat number, with projections ranging from a four per cent contraction to four per cent growth.

Economists said weak demand from the United States, shown in the latest electronic orders, would continue to dog Singapore's non-oil exports.

Electronic components account for about 70 per cent of Singapore's non-oil exports.

The Asian economic crisis, with many regional countries plagued by recession, would also depress exports, they said.

In June, non-oil exports rose a nominal 6.1 per cent year on year to Singapore $7.9 billion, after falling 4.8 per cent in May.

"We believe external demand continues to be weak. Up to 40 per cent of Singapore's exports go to Asian countries," said Leng Seng Choon, economist with Kay Hian Research.

He said recessions in countries like Japan, Hong Kong and Thailand would put a damper on exports.

A bank-based economist said exports to emerging markets like China were also showing signs of slowing.

She said growth for China was now nearly flat compared with more than 30 per cent earlier this year.

New orders for electronic components from the United States, Singapore's largest market, fell 2.5 per cent year on year in June.

Although this was an improvement over May, when they fell a revised 22 per cent, it signalled that demand remained sluggish.

The United States absorbs about a quarter of Singapore's non-oil domestic exports.

Economists forecasting a dip in the July number also cited the high base factor of comparison against July last year, which was unseasonally strong.

"Seasonally, July is a low period," said Chua Piang Sze of Vickers Ballas.

Another reason for a possible contraction was continuing poor retained import levels, a leading indicator of trends ahead.

"Across the region, most of the ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) countries will perform worse simply because imports have declined sharply, suggesting that imports for export demand is slowing," Chua said.

She said that despite the rise in Singapore's non-oil exports for June, retained imports had declined.

Leng of Kay Hian agreed: "With retained imports having gone down so sharply, it is an indication that exports this month are not likely to perform so well...I'm looking for a contraction," he said.

But those wary of being too bearish pointed to the likely positive effect of a weaker Singapore dollar on exports.

Paul Alapat of Indosuez WI Carr, said the Singapore dollar had depreciated some 18 per cent since July, 1997.

"These products are sold in a US dollar denominated market. By converting US dollars into Singapore dollars, I start off with an 18 per cent increase, currency translation effect, if prices were constant," he said.

The Singapore dollar was trading around an average of 1.45 against the US dollar in July last year compared with 1.71 per dollar this year, he said.

Economists said another positive for July was one additional working day this year, which could give the export level a boost.

"One additional working day can make a difference of four percentage points in your forecast," said an economist, who declined to be named.