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Wednesday, August 19, 1998

Devaluation not to have wide impact: Economists 

Our Economic Bureau/Agencies  
NEW DELHI/MUMBAI, Aug 18: Economists have down-played the impact of the rouble devaluation on the Indian economy. According to them, the rouble does not trade at the official rate hence devaluation does not mean much.

The impact is expected to be less as Russia is not integrated with the world economy on the same scale as Japan or the US, they said. "The impact of rouble devaluation will not have the same effect that devaluation of the yen or the yuan will have," an economist said. In addition, India's trade with Russia is not considered to be significant compared to trade volumes of some other countries, economists said.

However, Manubhai Shah, president, CIS Chamber of Commerce, said the devaluation will have a positive impact as imports from Russia will become cheap. Also devaluation holds out the prospect of stabilising the Russian economy which will have a positive impact on Indo-Russian trade, he said.

Ramu Deora, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), speaking to PTI, said devaluation of the rouble will improve Indian exports to CIS countries. "It is very difficult to quantify the impact so soon, everything will depend on how the Chinese and Japanese currencies move," he said.

India exports pharmaceuticals, chemicals and dyes worth $4 billion annually to CIS countries and this can be adversely affected because of the devaluation, Deora said. "I have to hear from individual exporters on cancellation of orders," he said.

Referring to continuing pressure on the Indian rupee in the foreign exchange market, India will be impacted to a large extent if the yen and yuan devalue to a larger extent, he said. "I hope the Reserve Bank of India and the Union finance minister will take appropriate measures," he said.


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