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Friday, August 21, 1998

Commodity Briefing 

REUTERS & AGENCIES  
Liffe wheat futures unchanged
LIFFE wheat futures closed unchanged to 35 pence lower Wednesday, as fluctuations in a strengthening pound caused volatility in prices, said brokers. Sterling traded lower at first, only to rally before weakening late in the day. However at 1620 GMT sterling was still trading above Tuesday's level, valued at DM2.9187, over a pfennig higher than DM2.90 48 traded late in London Tuesday. A rise in the value of the pound makes UK goods more expensive to foreign buyers, hence UK shippers have to decrease prices to remain competitive on export markets. Brokers described trade as volatile, with prices reacting to changes in sterling.

First Australian wheat milling
The first shipment of Australian wheat has been milled by the Five Star Flour Mill (FSFM), an AWB Ltd joint venture in Egypt. The re-named Australian Wheat Board said in a statement that First FSFM flour from the mill is reaching Cairo streets, produced from 55,000 tonnes of Australian wheat which discharged at Suez last week. The facility on the Red Sea at the mouth of the Suez Canal gives Australia freight advantages and the ability to service the rapidly changing private sector flour market in Egypt, AWB chairman Trevor Flugge said. The mill will consume around 100,000 tonnes of wheat a year, using state of the art milling equipment and control technologies and producing a range of bulk and consumer flour products, with an emphasis on cake and specialty flours.

Mexico agro budget spared cuts
Mexico's agriculture spending has largely been untouched despite three cuts to the federal budget, according to agriculture minister Romarico Arroyo. He said the sector's 1998 budget was 22.62 billion pesos, compared to 22.91 billion pesos originally budgeted, in comments this week obtained in a statement on Wednesday. Mexico has slashed some $4 billion from its federal budget, after slumping oil prices forced the government to revise downward its expected budget revenue. Income from state monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) accounts for about a third of budget income. "We have had some reaccommodations within the sector's programmes, but not adjustments in the overall budget," Arroyo said. Despite a weaker peso, Arroyo said he did not expect a greater cost of importing grains than originally forecast because of a decline in international grain prices.

NYCE cotton settles higher
Cotton futures on the New York Cotton Exchange settled higher on the day Wednesday as commodity fund bought, traders said. However, one trader noted that commercial selling at the highs ended the rally. "The funds were very good buyers," said Hibbie Barrier, trader with the Jernigan Group, a trading house in Nashville, Tennessee. But he added that "the trade was a ready seller at the highs." The December contract couldn't move much above 74.90 cents per pound "with any conviction" and the buying ran out of follow through. Some of the speculative buying was due to talk that between 150,000 and 300,000 bales of Chinese cotton may have been lost in flooding along the Yangtze river, barrier said.

Euro cotton prices lower.
European raw cotton prices are marginally lower late Wednesday, tracking losses on the New York Cotton Exchange, said one European trader. The general consensus is that the New York market remains volatile, creating an unclear price sentiment and a reluctance to buy anything other than hand to mouth purchases, said one German trader. There has been some trade activity of a price testing nature within the Italian market for Greek descriptions, and a further interest in central Asian cottons within the German market, reported Cotlook, the Liverpool-based cotton information company.

Australia 1997/98 coal exports up
The value of Australian coal exports increased by 20 per cent to a record A$9.5 billion in 1997/98 (July/June), resources minister Warwick Parer said on Thursday. The volume of coal exports had increased by 12 per cent since 1996/97. "These export results were achieved under very challenging market conditions and intense competition from other countries," Parer said in a statement. "They reinforce the underlying strength and continuing growth prospects of the Australian coal industry," he said.

ERA sees stable uranium prices
Uranium miner Energy Resources of Australia Ltd (ERA) said on Thursday that 1997/98 (July/June) fell due to lower prices which should remain stable over the short term, rising over the longer-term. Net profit in the year to end-June fell 34 per cent to A$26.7 million. ERA, which owns the Ranger mine in the outback Northern Territory and has begun work on the nearby Jabiluka mine, said 1997/98 uranium oxide sales fell to 4,928 tonnes from 5,421 tonnes. Ranger sales rose to a record 4,635 tonnes from 3,956 tonnes. The company, which is majority owned by mining house NorthLtd, said current fiscal year sales were expected to be in line with production at between 5,000 and 5,500 tonnes and then rise to between 5,500 and 6,000 tonnes in 1999/2000.

LME copper seen consolidating
Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) are expected to stay in a narrow range later on Thursday with market sentiment depressed because of slowing Asian demand, traders in Seoul said. "Copper is expected to trade in a $30-40 range today," a metal trader said. The trader said the copper market has seen good buying interest by consumers and Chinese traders at around $1,610 a tonne, while selling interest by European traders at $1,640/50 weighed on the market. But the copper market was likely to test a resistance of $1,640/50 a tonne next week as some short covering by funds was expected. The LME three-month copper bid price was trading at $1,631 at 0420 GMT on Thursday, against Wednesday's London afternoon kerb close of $1,637. Meanwhile, aluminium prices will continue to stay in a featureless trade range, moving in line with the copper market and the Japanese yen, traders said.

329 Chinese oil wells closed
Flooding in northeastern China has forced the Jilin oilfield to close 329 wells, the People's Daily reported on Thursday. A total of 1,842 wells were inundated by August 18, cutting daily output to 9,977 tonnes (72,832 barrels) from 11,026 tonnes before the flooding, the newspaper said. No other details were given. The oilfield near the swollen Nen and Songhua rivers was the third major Chinese oilfield to be hit since severe storms struck northeastern China early this month. Floods had closed 1,809 out of 25,000 wells in Daqing,cutting daily production by 3,724 tonnes, the China Oil News said on Tuesday. Daqing is China's largest oil producer and its output last year accounted for more than one third of the nation's total. Flooding had forced Liaohe oilfield, China's third largest producer, to cut daily production by up to 3,502 tonnes.

US west coast products fall
Prices for US west coast refined products fell in response to lower futures prices in New York on Wednesday, traders said. Discussion was thin for the third straight day, with few deals reported, according to traders. A refinery explosion at Arco's Carson, California, refinery killed one worker but took place in the plant's co-generation plant and therefore did not impact production, the company said. No fire occurred and state officials have begun an investigation into the blast, which also injured two workers. West Coast spot gasoline in Los Angeles was talked 46.50/47.50 cents a gallon, a 0.50 decline. September unleaded gasoline fell 0.62 cents a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) to 40.66 cents. Meanwhile, Nymex front-month crude prices rose 24 cents a barrel.

Asia product swaps stable
Singapore oil product swaps were stable at midday on Thursday, with the cash markets offering some price support, traders said. For gas oil, however, traders were still seeing length in the market with many suppliers searching for outlets to place their unsold cargoes. The latest bout of buying from Australian refiners did little to alleviate the bearish mood, traders said. Traders said that the market's biggest driving factor would continue to be China, after its appetite to purchase spot barrels was suppressed lately due to recent crackdown on oil smuggling activities. Gas oil was traded in the physical market at $13.60, for a 150,000 barrel cargo for September 3-7 lifting, which helped floor the otherwise crumbling market.


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