But this situation is unlikely to affect the overall foodgrain production in the country achieving its target level of 207 million tonne in 1998-99, as production is on rise in other states of the country, the experts said.

The growth rate in wheat in Punjab has declined to 2 per cent in the last decade from 5 per cent in late 60s. Similarly, the growth rate in wheat declined in the last decade to 2.9 per cent in Haryana from 3.7 per cent in 1975-84.

The growth rate in rice in Punjab declined to 2 per cent in mid-eighties from 9 per cent in 60s and early 70s. In the last decade there was only one per cent increase per year. The growth rate in rice in Haryana declined to 0.5 per cent per year in the last decade from 5 per cent in 1965-74.

The study also stated that the contribution of Punjab and Haryana to the total foodgrain production in the country has declined to 19.99 per cent from the peak level of 20.54 per cent in 1985-86. However, the decline in productivity in Punjab and Haryana is likely to be mitigated by the rise in production in other states.

An indepth districtwise analysis shows a sharp declines in productivity of wheat and rice in both states.

In Punjab wheat productivity declined from 10.23 per cent in Hoshiarpur district in 1965-74 to 2.89 per cent in 1985-94. In Sangrur district wheat productivity declined from 7.11 per cent in 1965-74 to 1.95 per cent in 1985-94. In Ferozepur district the productivity declined from 6.57 per cent in 1965-74 to 1.96 per cent in 1985-94. In Gurudaspur district it declined from 5.87 per cent in 1965-74 to 2.99 per cent in 1985-94. In Jalandhar district the productivity declined 5.75 per cent in 1965-74 to 1.97 per cent in 1985-94. In Ropar district, it declined from 5.41 per cent in 1965-74 to 2.50 per cent in 1985-94 and in Patiala it declined from 4.91 per cent in 1965-74 to 1.61 per cent in 1985-94. Decline in wheat productivity was also noticed in Faridkot where it declined from 3.47 per cent in 1975-84 to 2.47 per cent in 1985-94.

Similarly in Haryana the wheat productivity declined to 2.92 per cent in Ambala district in 1986-95 from 4.16 per cent in 1966-75. Wheat productivity declined in Karnal district from 4.33 per cent in 1976-85 to 1.91 per cent in 1986-95. In sirsa district, it declined from 4.32 per cent in 1976-85 to 3.5 per cent in 1986-95. In Sonipat district, it declined from 4.16 per cent in 1976-85 to 3.86 per cent in 1986-95. In Hisar it declined from 3.7 per cent in 1976-85 to 2.85 per cent in 1986-95 and in Kurushetra it declined from 3.39 per cent in 1976-85 to 1.87 per cent in 1986-95.