The termination of Thursday's rally has put the market in a fix. With Thursday's rally, the sensex had broken the short-term falling trendline. It was certainly a good sign. But Friday's move has somehow reduced this optimism. In fact, in monthly chart, the sensex has broken the 9-year upward trendline. This breach, without any doubt is negative for the health of the sensex.

From the present level, the sensex is certainly targeting the December 1996 level of 2713 points which is around 200 points away from the current level.

Although the chances of touching 2713 level are high, the movement in ITC stock would be crucial for the market. In fact, ITC is the only stock which can trigger a rally in the near future. Reliance alsoenjoys a strong support of a 9-year old upward trendline at the level of around Rs 102. Other heavy weightage stocks like Bajaj Auto and Bhel are also better placed.

While the position of the heaviest stock (contributing 20 per cent to the sensex), HLL appears extremely weak in weekly chart, the position of daily chart is marginally better. Overall, the short-term outlook of HLL is grim. The position of State Bank is equally weak and hints at further decline. As such, the move in ITC and Reliance would decide the fate of a rally in the coming week.

While the market is around 200-points away from a major support level, some specified stocks offer an excellent opportunity for the long term investors. Traders however can stick to wait and watch policy for the time being. For investors, Bhel, Godrej Soaps, Indo Gulf Fertilisers, Reliance, Siemens, Thermax, Exide Industries, Carrier Aircon and ABB offer a good investment opportunity. However, there are stocks which are expected to remain weak in the comingdays. Cadbury, which recorded smart gains in the past few weeks is due for a correction. Profit booking should be considered on this counter.

Similarly, Cochin Refineries has also turned weak. Unlike other refinery stocks, Cochin Refineries had outperformed the market in the past few week. However, with a sharp dip on Friday, the stock has given a fresh exit signal. An exit should be made at the current level as the stock is expected to fall further. The position of other stocks like Hindalco, Colgate, Grasim and ACC is equally weak.