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Monday, August 24, 1998

After El Nino, La Nina threatens Asian nations 

Sangita Shah  
August 23: La Nina, the nature of extremes, is fast approaching the Pacific ocean and will hit Southeast Asian countries, causing severe damage to agriculture in the near future.

Scientists predict torrential rains in coming months that will wash away top layers of soil, trigger flash floods and sweep toxic ash into rivers, seas and paddy fields.

Though India might not experience the devastating effect but the country will not be left untouched. The country that will be most hit is Indonesia which will witness heavy rains and flash floods. The winters in the Asia-Pacific region especially the south-east and the south-west will witness unusually warm temperature, while northern regions will experience comparatively cooler temperatures.

The phenomenon may cause damage to the Indian rabi crop that begins in October and ends in March. The country will witness unusual heat waves during this period. The crops that need cooler temperatures will be suffocated by the heat waves and lead to premature death of standing crops.

La Nina is all set to bring in floods and storms in certain regions in America. Flooding has already caused lower crude output in Latin America and lower copper production in Columbia.

North Korea is already reeling under the worst famine and other Asian countries like South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines etc also face drought due to La Nina. These countries will have to rely heavily on staple food imports like rice and corn, the prices of which are rising. Due to their weakened currencies the import bill of these countries would be highly inflated.

Like global warming, the effects of El Nino is subtle, but potentially devastating. Since it peaks around the Christmas, it was named by Peruvian Fisherfolks as El Nino or the Christ child. La Nina, is commonly termed as the devil sister of equally devastating big brother El Nino.

El Nino does not directly cause storms and droughts, it creates conditions in which the weather changes its course. El Nino is phenomenon of warming of a warm-cool oscillation in the water and atmosphere of the Pacific ocean. It is known as ENSO- the EL Nino Southern Oscillation. The warm phase usually lasts for 8-10 months and the entire ENSO phase can continue from 3-7 years including the cold phase, when the water cools down. This is followed by El Nino's sister, La Nina. Every El Nino has La Nina and together they orchestrate a tango of destruction. The brother-sister combination whirl the oceans.

Though India was expected to remain unscathed by El Nino's effect and have normal monsoons, the country did experience belated effects including a cyclone on the western coast that hit Gujarat and the unseasonal monsoons in May that hampered agricultural growth.

The crop failures in several countries have led to increase in prices of commodities like edible oils, tea, cocoa, coffee, rice, soyabean etc.The cotton crop near the equator, sugar production in Cuba, cocoa crop in Malaysia and the cardamom crop in Gautemala were severely affected. Drought and famines have created havoc in Asian and African countries due to El Nino.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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