"We made the cardinal sin of getting into forecasts for one year. We are in the business of estimates and we are not forecasters," Asthana said addressing a press conference to release CSO studies on poverty and consumption patterns.

However, he said CSO would continue to give advance estimates of gross domestic product.

It was for institutes like National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) and Institute of Economic Growth to forecast growth, he said.Commenting on the quality of data, the secretary said data collection system, some of which were there for over four centuries, have collapsed in the last few years.

Citing the example of statistics on black pepper, he said according to data provided to CSO, there was more export of the commodity from the country than its production.

He, however, said that the department has taken steps to improve the quality of data and to reduce the time lag. This includes a joint project with the World Bank for which an amount of Rs 800 crore has been earmarked for improving the quality of statistics, he added.

Meanwhile, a study on `counting the poor', conducted by Shubhashis Gangopadhya of the Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi centre, and Amaresh Dubey, of the North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong pointed out that the poverty incidence in the country declined between 1987-88 and 1993-94 at the aggregate level.

The study released by CSO on Monday said that at a disaggregated level, however, there are some states and regions that performed exceedingly well, and others that did not.

Apart from discussing various issues connected with the department, Asthana also released a study on the changing pattern of consumption expenditure in India by PD Joshi.

The report on "changing pattern of consumption expenditure in India" examines how far the level of living in rural and urban areas of the country improved or deteriorated during 1972-73 to 1993-94 and also with reference to selected population groups, that is lower group (LG) comprising bottom 30 per cent of the population, middle group (MG) comprising 30 to 70 per cent of the population and the top group (TG) comprising top 30 per cent of the population.

The study reveals that monthly per capita consumption expenditure (MPCE) had gone up from Rs 44 in 1972-73 to Rs 281 in 1993-94 in the rural areas and Rs 63 to Rs 458 in the urban areas. In real terms, the rise of MPCE works out to approximately 22 per cent for the rural areas and 17 per cent for urban areas between 1972-73 and 1993-94. The proportion of expenditure on food in the total expenditure has fallen from 72.8 per cent in 1972-73 to 63.2 per cent in 1993-94 in rural areas and this decline in the urban areas was 64.5 per cent to 54.7 per cent. Noticeable changes were also observed with respect of groups of items during the period.

There is no consistent trend observed by the study in calorie intake and the level of undernourishment. Kerala with the low calorie intake of about 1965 has only about 28 per cent undernourished children but Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal with high calorie intake of 2200 to 2300, have more than 57 per cent of the children undernourished.