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Wednesday, August 26, 1998

Market completes consolidation phase 

K Seshadri  
The market has not only got over the suspense of a weak note on Monday, but took a firm step northwards. The Sensex gave indication of the market confidence by opening at 2959, some nine points over the previous close of 2950. This comes on top of the straight rise from 2928 to 2950 on Monday. The index moved up to post an intra-day high of 2997. The opening level of 2959 was the low for the day. The index closed at 2993 with a gain of 43 points day over day.

The market has risen with good support in volumes. At the NSE, where it was the closing day for the trading week, the volume in advance had moved up to Rs 1032 crore from Rs 756 crore. That in decline had gone down from Rs 219 crore to Rs 175 crore. As pointed out in this column yesterday, the recovery in both the prices and the volumes appears to have been partly triggered due to covering up of short positions. At BSE, the volume in advance went up from Rs 640 crore to Rs 968 crore. And that in decline has gone down to Rs 52 crore from Rs 167 crore.

Now to some technical indicators. The 12-day exponential moving average is at 2978, and the index has closed above this average. This imparts a note of confidence in the recovery of the index.

And even in the weekly charts, the stochastic indicator has today cut through upwards its trigger, confirming the upward direction of the index on a longer note, than that indicated by the daily indicators. The RSI-indicator on the weekly charts is at 36.51 in close proximity to the trigger line which is at 37.59. Crossing this triggerline would put another confirmatory note for long-term investors.

Today's rise in the index has been contributed mainly by a few heavy weight scrips like HPCL, BHEL and Bajaj Auto and some medium weights like Mahindra & Mahindra, Nestle and MTNL. That the Sensex's gain should come from a mix of scrips is healthy. HLL continues to be weak, even though it made a modest gain. SBI has been yow-yowing and therefore one cannot look this scrip with confidence yet for taking Sensex up. Also one must take note that some of these scrips have now come level after getting over the depression. So it should be interesting to see if punters go ahead to move them up further. In any case, the market has completed an important phase of consolidation.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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