"I am hopeful we shall start noticing the turnaround when growth figures for September come and by the end of the year there will be a definite upturn in the economy," he said in an interview here.

Sinha said the strategy to reverse recessionary trends was to stimulate demand by increasing government spending in public and private sector especially in areas of agriculture, rural development and infrastructure.

"Time to spend is coming," he said admitting the slowdown in the economy was due to industrial recession which had hit hard sectors such as steel, cement and commercial vehicles.

He said because there was deceleration in agricultural production last year it created problems of demand in some other sectors like textiles. The paper industry is also having some problems. "Therefore, our strategy is to stimulate demand by larger expenditure in both public and private sector," he said.

The finance minister said the biggest challenge the BJP government faced when it assumed office was to steer the economy out of this difficult situation. At this point of time, there are mixed signals. Some sectors of the economy are showing signs of an upturn while some others continue to stagnate. Exports, which have fallen sharply in the first quarter of this year, have started picking up in July.

Admitting that the near 8 per cent inflation rate was not sustainable, Sinha said it was largely due to seasonal factors and it was now showing signs of decline. The overall domestic economic situation has some promising signs with corporate and income-tax collections as well as excise and customs duty collections beginning to show a positive growth after a disappointing first quarter, Sinha said.

But the present state of the economy calls for a very "skillfull management" specially in view of the turmoil which has overtaken some of the major economic players in the world. Sinha said the BJP government had inherited an economy which was in the throes of a slowdown, the first signs of which were discernible in June 1996.

The slowdown had worsened immediately after the BJP assumed office in March and presented the interim budget in parliament. "I had given the facts and figures (interim budget) which had described the deteriorating economic scenario," he said.

Sinha said the centre's fiscal deficit overshot to 6 per cent of GDP as against the budgeted 4.5 per cent of the GDP in 1997-98. In absolute terms, fiscal deficit had gone up by over Rs 20,000 crore in one year.

Exports grew by a meagre 2.5 per cent. Both industrial and agricultural production were down as a result of weak overall economic growth which had decelerated to 5 per cent of GDP, he said.

Inflation, after touching a low of 3.37 per cent in August 1997, was on a rising curve. The present rate of about 8 per cent was not sustainable and was largely on account of seasonal factors.

Agricultural production was down by 2.5 per cent last year and even in the pre-kharif season it had suffered on account of excessive heat wave conditions. Despite problems of inadequate rains in some parts of the country and excessive floods in other parts, the overall agricultural prospects in the kharif season appear promising so far. "It is our hope when the new crop comes in the market, prices will go down appreciably," he said.