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Tuesday, September 8, 1998

GDR recovery pulls Sensex past 3,000 points 

FE INVESTOR BUREAU  
MUMBAI/NEW DELHI, Sept 7: Led by a 5.5 per cent recovery in GDR markets last Friday, domestic bourses bounced back after a long lull to report a smart gain of over 76 points on Monday. The Skindia GDR index during the last week recovered to report a sharp gain of 8.8 per cent, thereby dwindling international arbitage between the GDR and domestic markets. This paved the way for a strong recovery in the domestic markets on Monday.

The markets opened firm in the morning at 3016 points and saw a high of 3063.53 before closing the day at 3051.93 points. For the first time after a gap of over 15 days, the sensex has crossed the 3000-mark.

Reliance Industries' GDR, representing two equity shares, which had dropped to a low of $ 4.6-4.7 per GDR (Rs 100 per share) a few days ago shot back by more than 20 per cent to $ 5.6 (Rs 120 per share) last Friday.

On Monday, pivotals like State Bank, Relinace Industries, BHEL, MTNL, Tisco, and Telco bounced back, pulling up the sensex beyond the phycological 3000-barrier.On BSE, Reliance and State Bank topped the volumes chart.

State Bank zoomed by 6.89 per cent and volumes more than doubled from around 31 lakh shares to around 70 lakh shares. Other pivotals like Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum, Larsen & Toubro, Hindalco, Grasim and ACC shot into limelight and recorded smart gains with active interest.

Apart from the index heavyweights, scrips like SAIL, Zee Telefilms, Sterlite, Supreme Industries, Essel Packaging and Philips witnessed heavy volumes with a rise in values. Software, FMCG and pharmaceuticals stocks witnessed only marginal gains. Barring a few stocks, sotware and pharmaceutical stocks were more or less dormant and the activity revolved around the pivotals only.

Global recovery: Strong Asian markets further aided the rally on Monday with the Hang Seng zooming by 7 per cent (566 points) to 8054.5 points on a firmer yen and lower interest rates delivered by government measures to strengthen its currency-board monetary system. Malaysian shares,whipped about recently by new currency controls and political turmoil, rocketed more than 25 per cent, while the Tokyo and Seoul exchanges spurted nearly 4 per cent.

In the domestic market, not many are convinced with Monday's rally of over 76 points and expect the market to witness correction in the sessions to follow. DS Nanda of DSN Securities, a Delhi-based NSE member felt that although it is a good sign that the market has closed over the 3000-level after 20-25 days, but the market is likely to face a very strong resistance after another short rise of around 100-150 points as the 50-100 and 200-day resistance levels are very strong. Software stock which remained subdued are unlikly to outperform the market in the next few days, Nanda reiterated.

Arun Malhotra of DBS Securities, a Delhi-based FII, also felt that the rally is unlikley to be sustained as the problems remain the same. Strong Asian markets coupled with techincal factors pushed up the markets on Monday and the rally was restricted to keyscrips like RIL, SBI, Tisco, cstrol and Telco, he pointed out.

Recovery to be sustained: A corporate BSE member felt that though the rally is more of a technical nature, it is not likley to fizzle out too soon. The market will be more or less stable over the next couple of days and is likley to react only marginally. He said stocks like SBI, ITC and Reliance were bound to recover after being hammered ruthlesely. ITC, it may be recalled, was hammered down from a high of Rs 750 to around Rs 560 and Relinace from 160 to Rs 102 in the past few trading sessions. According to market sources, Jardine Flemmings was a buyer at the Reliance counter after selling it around the Rs 120 level.

Vinod Jain, another Delhi-based NSE member felt that the marklet has bottomed out. Since the market did not record any major gains in the first few session of the current settlement on the NSE, it is unlikely to witness any major correction.

RIB effect on SBI: State Bank after a long gap was seen on the fumdmanager's buy list. The success of Resurgent India Bonds would result in additional revenues to the tune of over Rs 500 crore over the next five years, which would make the earning even more attractive, said a BSE broker. On Monday, UTI along with SBI Mutual Fund are beleived to have bought huge chunks of State Bank.

The success of the RIBs finally filtered down to the State Bank counter with the scrip zooming by Rs 13 on Monday to close the day at Rs 201.7 on BSE. The scrip after dropping by almost 40 per cent to touch its 32-month low of 180 left a wide margin for bargain hunters and the scrip has gained Rs 23 in the past few sessions.

For the country's largest bank, the $ 4.16 billion inflow from the RIBs is a bonanza and it means fresh opportunitites for investors as the scrip's valuation has taken a dramatic turn in the past few days. Even on a conservative estimate, the deployment of the RIB funds would mean an additional net profit of around Rs 100 crore for SBI in the current financial year. Thiswould translate into an additional earning per share of Rs 1.91.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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