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Wednesday, September 9, 1998

Australia Treasury outlook may contain few surprises 

Victoria Thieberger  
Sydney, Sept 8: Australia's Treasury department will provide the latest update on the nation's economic outlook later on Tuesday, but analysts are expecting little in the way of new figures.

Since Treasurer Peter Costello already released Treasury's major economic forecasts last week, analysts are not expecting much more than some extra detail and an insight into Treasury's thinking behind the actual numbers.

The Treasury and finance departments are due to release their pre-election outlooks at 3.30 pm (0530 GMT), under new laws introduced by the federal government called the Charter of Budget Honesty.

A general election has been called for October 3.

The outlook is expected to include revised economic forecasts for 1998-99 (July-June), changes in forecast government spending and revenues and risks to the budget and economic outlook.

"I think it's going to be a very disappointing document," said HSBC Markets chief economist John Edwards.

"It's very difficult to see how it can in any way divergefrom the material already issued by the Treasurer," he said.

He said the main concern for financial markets was the Treasury's use of projected growth of 3.5 per cent for the out-years, rather than actual estimates.

A Reuters survey of economists last week found a median forecast of 2.9 per cent growth for the 1999-00 year. "Treasury certainly does estimates for those years, but it's choosing not to release them publicly," Edwards said.

"It means that the tax package proposed by the government and its impact on the budget surpluses are all based on projections which are not credible.

"It makes a mockery of a Charter of Budget Honesty if they are using projections which cannot possibly be realised," Edwards said. Other analysts said Treasury could provide alternative growth scenarios for 1999-00, when the government's tax reforms are due to take effect.

"They normally wouldn't forecast 1999-00 in detail until later this year," said Rothschild chief economist Ric Simes, a former senior economicadviser to the former government.

"That doesn't preclude them from providing some sensitivity analysis for the out-years," he said.

Simes said Treasury would also likely explain its thinking behind the cut in the 1998-99 growth forecast to 2.75 per cent growth from 3.0 per cent announced by Costello last week, and outline the external risks to the economy over the coming year.

In addition, officials would have had more time to mull over the details of the national accounts for the June quarter, which were released on the same day as the revised economic forecasts last week.

The report showed gross domestic product grew by a higher than expected 3.9 per cent in 1998-99, above Treasury's own forecast of 3.75 per cent.

"While they might have been comfortable with the bottomline numbers in the revised forecasts, they really didn't have an opportunity to work through all the GDP numbers," Simes said.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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