According to the VMA Oilseeds Research and Development Institute (Vordi), demand of edible oils for house-hold and industrial consumption is likely to be around 100.67 lakh tonnes against the total availability of 81.88 lakh tonnes.

Besides the demand for consumption, India also exports about 4.60 lakh tonnes of oil fats and seeds pushing the net demand to 105.27 lakh tonnes.

A preliminary survey by the institute has estimated oilseeds output, both from the kharif and rabi seasons, to be around 275 lakh tonnes in 1998-99.

While the nine major oilseeds including groundnut, castor, rapeseed/mustard, sunflower and soyabean are estimated to contribute around 224.5 lakh tonnes, cotton seed and copra output are expected to be around 51 lakh tonnes.

Secondary sources ofedible oils like rice bran, rapeseed cake, sunflower and groundnut cakes among others will yield 8.60 lakh tonnes of oil, vordi said.

Food and consumer affairs minister SS Barnala had said recently that government was expecting oilseeds output to be only 222 lakh tonnes during the year and was faced with a demand-supply gap of 15 lakh tonnes.

Of the total 275 lakh tonnes of oilseeds output during the period, kharif produce is likely to contribute 180.5 lakh tonnes while the rabi season would see 95 lakh tonnes output.

The government has scaled down the expectations and put the net oil availability at 63 lakh tonnes.

While the shortage of the commodity for household consumption is in the range of 20 lakh tonnes, that of the industrial oils would be 3.39 lakh tonnes, the survey said.

This, according to Vordi, is against the net demand of 88.09 lakh tonnes for household purposes and 12.58 lakh tonnes for industrial purposes.

The survey is based on the assumption that the country's population wouldbe 96.80 million during the period and per capita consumption of edible oils and industrial oils would be 9.10 kg and 1.30 kg respectively.

India's oilseed production has increased from a 71 lakh tonnes in 1972-73 to 222 lakh tonnes in 1997-98 and the net availability of the oils has increased to 63 lakh tonnes in 1997-98 from 54 lakh tonnes in 1990-91.

The government has already directed the public sector State Trading Corporation (STC) to import a total of 1.5 lakh tonnes of palmolein to meet the shortage of edible oils and to check the rising prices.