Economists around Europe put the chances of EMU (economic and monetary union) starting on time at 98.95 per cent, according to the median of 46 forecasts, virtually unchanged from levels recorded in the monthly poll since April.

``If anything, the emerging markets crisis has reinforced the role of the euro with the EU11 (the EMU founder countries) feeling more `protected' from external shocks,'' said senior economist Rosanna Maddalena at San Paolo Bank in London.

Crises in Asia and Russia, which are now also affecting Latin America, and the resulting global market turbulence have raised questions about whether the EMU launch next January could be affected.

Many uncertainties remain. Interest rates in Euroland, the 11 EMU states, may well be affected.

The crisis is also likely to hit European economic growth, even if onlymarginally, and German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, a leader of European integration for the past 16 years, is fighting for his political life as parliamentary elections late this month approach.

But the answer from the poll on EMU timing was clear. Asked what effect the crisis had on the chances of a delay or cancellation of EMU, four respondents said they had increased, one said they had they had decreased and 38 said there was no effect at all.

``The financial crisis is actually a blessing in disguise for monetary union,'' said senior economist Peter Van den Houte at Bank Brussel Lambert.

The crisis had already emphasised the eurozone as a safe haven, implying that the new European Central Bank would suffer no credibility problem at the outset of EMU, as some people have feared. ``On the contrary, given the recent events the euro is bound to be a strong and stable currency,'' he said.

A number of economists in the poll, taken on September 7-9, raised the issue of collective security for EMU countrieswhich smaller nations outside did not seem to enjoy.

Economist Michael Sturm at Dresdner Bank in Frankfurt, said markets had confidence in the euro and the bilateral exchange rates among the 11 currencies.

``The euro zone is an oasis of calm in turbulence which has also hit non-euro currencies like the Norwegian krona,'' he said.

The currencies of Denmark, Sweden and Norway, all of which are outside the euro zone, have been hit. In the case of Norway, which is not a European Union member, its crown has also suffered due to a slide in oil prices.

By contrast, the Italian lira has come under modest pressure during the crisis but otherwise the 11 EMU currencies have escaped speculative attack.

Chief economist Herve Goulletquer at Credit Lyonnais in Paris, did see an increase in the chances of a delay or cancellation in EMU but stressed this was only very marginal. He still put the chance of EMU going ahead on time at 95 per cent.