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Friday, September 11, 1998

Commodity Briefing 

 
Tokyo corn futures end higher: Tokyo corn futures ended higher on Thursday as sellers covered short positions ahead of a US Agriculture Department (USDA) monthly crop production report to be released on Friday, traders said. "The market is waiting for the figures, as you can tell by the volume, which was not very large," a commodities brokerage analyst said. Prices ranged from up 40 yen to up 280 yen. The benchmark September contract closed 60 yen higher at 13,820 yen, while the nearby November contract finished up 280 yen at 13,530 yen. Estimated volume was 31,111. Traders said they would keep close watch on the dollar/yen exchange rate on Friday, but that they did not expect aggressive corn futures price moves before the USDA report. An average trade estimate based on a Reuters survey of analysts said the USDA's September corn production report would be slightly revised up to 9.6 billion bushels. In August, the USDA said corn production was estimated at 9.592 billion bushels.

SFE wheatfalls: Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE) wheat fell solidly on Thursday as bears reasserted their grip on the market. Spot September sold down by A$2.75 to A$147.00 on a single lot. Settlement prices fell across the board by up to A$2.75. Doug Saunders of IAMA Ltd said the local market fell in reaction to Chicago's overnight decline and on a solid Australian dollar. SFE wheat could fall further, into the high A$140 range, especially on further weakness in Chicago, he said.

Dalian soybean futures end down: Dalian soybean futures ended mostly lower on Thursday on profit-taking triggered by overnight losses on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), traders said. The key November 1998 contract ended at 2,691 yuan ($325)per tonne, down yuan from Wednesday. It opened at 2,697, hitting an intraday high of 2,701 and a low of 2,678. "Overnight losses on the CBOT triggered profit-taking after Dalian soybeans had risen for the previous two trading days," a trader said. "CBOT has become a major reference for theDalian market after floods in northeast China receded."

UK bids for wheat at EU tender: UK grain traders placed bids for 6,000 tonnes of free market wheat at the weekly European Union (EU) tender on Thursday, the UK Intervention Board said. There were three bids for wheat ranging from 47.2 to 48.03 Ecus a tonne refund. There was an interest for barley, but as there were less than three bids the board was unable to give details. All bids will be considered at the weekly meeting of the EU cereals management committee.

IPE Brent seen sideways: IPE Brent crude oil futures were seen trading sideways on Thursday with an expected early reactive rally seen balanced out by indications of some lower price action from technicals, analysts said. Gas oil, meanwhile, seemed to have potential for some limited upside before eventually hitting solid resistance. They said crude's reactive rise at the open was expected in line with the gain of more than 20 cents a barrel in Nymex crude on the ACCESS afterhours trading system.

China offshore oil output seen up: China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) produced 11.129 million tonnes of oil in the first eight months of this year, accounting for 67.45 per cent targeted for 1998, the Economic Daily said on Thursday. The offshore oil output target was 16.5 million tonnes this year, the newspaper said. Daily offshore oil output in September was 2,000 tonnes more than that in the January-August period, it said. Output was expected to set a record this year, it said without giving further details. China had produced 16 million tonnes of offshore oil in 1997, earlier report said.

Qatar Land cuts crude supply to Korea: Qatar General Petroleum Co (QGPC) has informed its South Korean term customers that October supplies of Qatar Land would be cut by seven per cent, compared to five per cent in September, Korean term lifters said on Thursday. "We received a notification from QGPC that October Qatar Land would be reduced by seven per cent," one sourcesaid. Another lifter said his QGPC notification on Qatar Land extended the seven per cent to the entire fourth quarter. The Korean lifters do not lift Qatar Marine on a term basis. NWE oil products steady: NWE oil product barges hovered near flat in early Thursday trade. Prompt high sulphur fuel oil barges traded twice at $60 a tonne in Rotterdam and once at $61 a tonne in Antwerp, traders said. Gas oil barges drew little interest early, with many player staking to the sidelines ahead of the expiration of the September IPE futures later. At 0825 GMT, IPE September gas oil was up 50 cents at $115.75 a tonne and October gas oil was down 25 cents at $118.75 a tonne.

Nepal to buy kerosene: State-owned Nepal Oil Corp (NOC) has issued a tender to buy superior kerosene for October delivery, traders said on Thursday. The tender seeks two 30,000 tonne cargoes each for delivery on October 11-20 and October 21-30 into Madras/Haldia/Paradeep at the east coast of India in one and two Port combination. Thetender will close on September 17 and offers are valid till September 19. In its last tender, NOC bought a September 21-30 delivery cargo from Mobil at $132.10 per tonne for two Port or at $130.50 for single Port delivery at NOC's option.

Tokyo naphtha up: Tokyo naphtha prices inched up on Thursday while traders pondered the scale of the impact from Asian refiners' decision to further cut crude throughput, market participants said. "Naphtha's fundamentals continue to get direction from crude, but people are watching to see if some buying interest might emerge from among Japanese end-users due to the reduction," one Tokyo-based trader said. Key oil refineries in the region have been forced to cut throughput in the face of weak demand, but news on Wednesday of further reductions continued to be seen as a factor that might influence trading. Open-spec naptha was quoted at $133.50/$135.00 for first-half November delivery, and at $134.00/$135.25 for second-half November delivery.

Liffe cocoa duelower: Liffe cocoa is likely to continue to shuffle sideways although Wednesday's trading range was wider than in recent sessions, technical analysts said. Traders called cocoa to open around six stg a tonne lower in London. "Cocoa still hasn't cleared the 1,087 high. Until it does the three-wave rally from 1,056 to 1,087 does not allow for a confident bullish stance," said Elliott Wave International's Jim Martens. CSCE cocoa futures ended modestly higher in lacklustre trading Wednesday, with a late round of trade selling and local long liquidation knocking prices off session peaks. Benchmark December cocoa ended $6 per tonne firmer, at $1,599, after ranging from $1,612 to $1,587. Some traders said continued worries about the impact of dry weather on the 1998/99 Ivorian crop underpinned the market. Liffe cocoa ended mixed on Wednesday in switch-dominated trading as trade and industry rolled their positions forward.

Liffe coffee to correct further down: Liffe coffee is expected to correct furtheron the downside although the long-term outlook is still positive, technical analysts said on Thursday. Traders called coffee to open unchanged to a little higher. "A three-wave setback to fourth wave support at 1602/1595would represent a correction within a larger bull trend," said Elliott Wave International's Jim Martens. But it is not the time to be overly bullish as the advance since mid-August could be a completed correction, he added. CSCE arabica coffee futures ended broadly lower on Wednesday, wiping away most of the previous session's gains, on speculative and local selling. While no news was seen behind today's weakness, some traders said expectations September's premium to second-month December could draw coffee to the board may have dampened sentiment. Some traders also said the start of rains in Brazil, which are needed to start the flowering of the 1999-2000 crop, may have weighed on the market. Liffe coffee closed at the day's low on Wednesday, deflated by trade selling and as earlier fundbuying ran out of steam.

China rubber output down: China produced 362,200 tonnes of synthetic rubber in the first eight months of 1998, down 9.3 per cent compared with the same period last year, the Futures Herald said on Thursday, quoting the State Statistical Bureau. China's synthetic rubber output was 39,400 tonnes in August alone, down 14.5 per cent from the year-ago period, the newspaper said.

India bullion gains: Modest recovery in the world market and improved demand helped Indian gold and silver prices notch gains, dealers said on Thursday. Standard gold 24 carat was up five Rupees at 4,180 per 10grams. Gold was down by 55 Rupees on Wednesday. Gold biscuit (116.64 grams) was priced 100 Rupees higher at 49,100 Rupees per piece. In the European market, gold strengthened to $285.35/$285.75 per ounce, up from the New York close of $284.00/$284.50. In Bombay, silver (.999) opened 50 Rupees up at 7,430Rupees per kg. In Europe, silver recovered slightly to $4.94/$4.97 per ounce from theprevious close of $4.93/$4.96. "Large amounts of unsold silver in the Bombay market kept silver prices from going above the 7,500 rupee mark," said dealer Mahavir Shah.

Shanghai copper ends up: Shanghai copper futures closed mostly up on Thursday due to overnight gains on the London Metal Exchange (LME) but the contracts were off intraday highs on concerns about the trends, traders said. The most active December 1998 contract closed at an intraday low of 16,870 yuan ($2,037) per tonne, rising 10 yuan from Wednesday's close. It opened at 16,950 yuan and hit an intraday high of 16,980. "LME gains overnight helped push up Shanghai copper today,"a trader said. "But many were worried that the winds might shift as the advance was not fundamentally inspired."

Rio Tinto sees flat commodity prices: Global mining house Rio Tinto Ltd/Plc said on Thursday that it did not see much change in commodity prices during the second half of calendar 1998. "I don't think we are going to see huge pricedifferences between the first half and second half as a whole," chairman Robert Wilson told a briefing after the Anglo/Australian miner issued its first half profit result. Net profit in the six months to June 30 was seven per cent lower at US$551 million and in about the middle of broker forecasts.

China aluminium output up: China produced 1.52 million tonnes of aluminium in the first eight months of 1998, up 14.7 per cent year-on-year, the Futures Herald said on Thursday, quoting the State Statistical Bureau. China's aluminium output was 199,200 tonnes in August alone, up 11.7 per cent from same period last year, the newspaper said. Output of aluminium materials reached 835,200 tonnes in January-August, up 5.1 per cent, it said. Output for August alone was 111,900 tonnes, down 1.7 per cent year-on-year, it said. China's alumina output reached 2.21 million tonnes in the first eight months, up 12.0 per cent, it said. Output for August alone was 293,100 tonnes, up 16.6 per cent.

Copper seen up,aluminium lower: Copper is widely seen testing increasingly important resistance around $1,720 on Thursday, analysts said. But several said that aluminium might be in for a period of consolidation, especially after the metal failed to respond to copper's late Wednesday return above $1,700.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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