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Friday, September 11, 1998

Market may see more profit-booking 

K Seshadri  
Profit taking has started exerting pressure on the Sensex. On Thursday, it restricted the rise in the index to just 12 points. The pressure could further build up on Friday for plausible reasons.

On the home front, the week-end considerations would go against a further rise in prices. Also, you need to be cautious of overseas developments, which have the potential to dampen sentiments at home. The beginning of the Senate hearing of Starr's finding on US president, Bill Clinton has resulted in the Dow Jones getting on to downtrend at the opening. It has lost all the 240 points it had gained in the rally in the earlier day. Investors are again selling off equities and seeking refuge in bonds, despite historically low yields there. The European markets, too, have moved down. Tremors are now felt in the in the Brazilian markets. And in Japan, the reduction of interest rate has not stopped NIkkei from moving down interest rate. Boris Yeltsin recommending Yevgeny Primakov, the foreign minister as the new PrimeMinister has mad no dent on the markets.

The US Senate proceedings over the Clinton affair will unfold over the next two days. While these overseas developments have no direct bearing on the Indian stock markets, one cannot dismiss the past evidence that our market responds in sympathy.

The Sensex opened on a subdued note at 3090, seven points down from the previous close of 3097. The pressure of profit taking was such that the index could post an intra day of high at only 3132, which was lower than the previous high of 3145. Even the low for the day at 3079 was below the previous low of 3097. However, the market recovered well from the low to close at 3109, some 12 points higher than the previous close.

The traded volume had gone down from Rs 1337 crore to Rs 969 crore. The daily stochastics indicator for the Sensex has triggered sell in the overbought region. It is this very same indicator which had signalled a buy at the level of 2918 on September 2.

Essentially this is a short term tradingindicator, but we need to focus on the fact that right now profit making centres around short term actions. The long term investment indicators continue to be green. Investors with a longer term view should deliberate their actions. Short term investors should book profit and also consider going short.

Technically several scrips have turned weak and could invite profit booking and short selling. These scrips are BSES, BHEL, ACC, G E Shipping, Glaxo, Grasim, Hindalco, ICICI, Indian Hotel, Mahindra & Mahindra, MTNL and Ranbaxy Laboratories.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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