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Saturday, September 12, 1998

Bears tighten grip on Australian Gold 

REUTERS  
Sydney, Sept 11: The Australian Gold Index has fallen from a double top at 1,025 and is now testing band support at 955/930. The bears remain in control while the index is below 1,025 and in the bear channel.

Traders are focusing on lower levels, but are unlikely to sell again until band support fails.

Short term technicals are mixed. Averages are rising, but the index is below all but the 10 day number. Leading indicators are turning lower.

Stochastics are turning lower and it is likely that traders will sell again until the faster number crosses the lower. They are currently at 77/71.

Lower Fibonacci retracements are 941, 915, and 889.

Elliot Wavers see the double top at 1,025 as the end of wave four with the index now falling into the beginning of a fifth wave with a target of 695. However, it is still early days.

Medium term, the index is higher but is back towards the weekly low and back within the bear channel at 625/965.

Further selling can be expected if the index falls through supportat 930.

Medium term technicals are mixed. Averages are lower, but the 40 week number remains flat. Leading indicators are mixed.

The ROC is sidelined to lower and showing minor divergence. The RSI is starting to turn higher, while the stochastics have crossed up and are moving higher.

It is likely that traders will use the 930/1,025 range with slight bearish bias. Lower Fibonacci retracements are 941, 915 and 889.

Longer term, the index range is lower but the close is above 945 and is also above last month's close. There is some indecision creeping in, but while above 945 traders will have a slight bullish bias. However, they will watch the shorter term indicators for added direction.

Longer term technicals are mixed. Averages remain in bear formation, except for the 10 month number which is rising. Leading indicators are becoming bullish. The ROC and RSI are both rising.

The stochastics have been oversold and are now losing bear momentum with the faster number turning up. Traders will remaincautious and focus on the faster stochastic crossing the slower.

They are currently at 20/25. Elliot Wavers are still seeing a fifth wave projection lower, but they cannot ignore the leading indicators.

The index has made an aggressive move higher to encounter double top resistance at 1,025. There is also a pivot point reversal apparent at 1,005 and while these levels hold, traders will focus on lower retracements.

Elliot Wavers see this current fall as the beginning of a fifth wave lower, although the index has to fall below band support at 955/930.

Leading indicators are mixed, but with shorter term numbers starting to fall and traders will focus on both lower support levels and Fibonacci retracements in the near term.

Seasoned traders are likely to monitor both band support and the leading indicators in the short term. The bear channel still contains the index, hence the overall trend remains lower, albeit within large ranges.

(Daniel Fock is a member of the Australian Technical AnalystsAssociation. Views are his own, not Reuters.)

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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