Also, the trading was marked by the absence of any sense of panic as, for example, in the Apollo Tyres counter. Speculators were holding on and did not seem unduly worried. Buying was also in progress, pushing up values of several scrips.

The marketmen appeared to be accumulating on expectations of the upward trend resuming on Monday.

So are the Indian stock markets immune to happenings on the global bourses? A few studies made show that the Indian stock markets have a poor co-relation with other markets in south-east Asia. I hold a different view.

It is not just a matter of a `Pavlovian reaction', market to market. The Indian stock markets take their clues from avariety of factors of which the global market happenings are only one.

Currently, stock prices are not exactly riding on the back of strong fundamentals. They keep rising because they are close to their lows. In other words, selling at current levels would make poor sense, viewed in the light of what is possible in the next 12 months.

The short-term traders are actually riding on the note of optimism generated on the back of this longer-term view. Also, any particular upward or downward move may happen due to a combination of a number of factors, adding synergy in the process. It is difficult to encapsulate these factors in any study.

Let us look at some of these. Right now, the potential for political turbulence is low. Political parties are redefining their strategies in view of the state assembly elections which are round the corner. The Congress, after sufficient introspection, now seems to have decided that it is wiser, in principle, not to seek active alliance with other parties. There is a needto build its image and alliances would be an hindrance to that objective.

Indirectly, this has dispelled fears of instability of the BJP government at least for some time to come. The party has moved up its learning curve and could perhaps manage to garner support whenever needed. This alone can give a great boost to stock markets. The Indian stock markets have trembled more due to local political threats than due to happenings in the global markets. Traders turned nervous everytime the lady from Chennai took a threatening posture.

Now it looks like investors can look forward to peace, at least till November.

Now let us come to the Clinton factor. In Washington, the possibility of Clinton being impeached or resigning cannot yet be ruled out. The House Judicial Committee is in session and with the opposition being in majority, we should keep our fingers crossed. But by the time the market opens on Monday, we would know better. In the meanwhile, the European markets continued to move down marginally onThursday.

On the domestic front there is nothing much fundamental to push stocks up. While Sinha is trying to whip up the `feel good' sentiment, the real signs of growth in the broader segments of the economy are not still evident. Sure steel and electricity have given encouraging signals so far, but not so in the case of other segments, as is reflected in the ministry of finance's statistics (table):

Better figures from a wider front can be expected to be seen only in the fourth quarter. But in the meanwhile, half-yearly results will start pouring in. There is not much reason to believe that they would thrill any one. So if the markets remain buoyant, it is because it makes sense to buy and hold stocks now for a good return in about 12 months.

If that is settled one should not really worry about what would happen if Clinton is impeached or resigns next week. Hopefully, other markets will tumble and intelligent investors will continue to keep picking up good stocks.