But more rains could lead to the pest menace that could affect the cotton standing in the field and lower yields.

"All the major cotton growing zones were lashed by torrential rains but just now there isn't any serious problem for the cotton crop," says Dhiren Sheth of Galiakotwala & Co. However, if the wet spell is not followed by a dry weather in the next 20 days, then the pests will increase due to dampness and excessive moisture, says Sheth.

According to Shirish Shah, partner in the cotton trading company Bhaidas Cursondas, the current rain must have already affected the crop and there could be a loss of about one per cent in the total production of kapas this season. There is a possibility of rains for another one week, according to Shah. This may cause further downward revision in the kapas output.

Already there are reports of minor bollwormattacks on the cotton crop in some parts of Punjab and Harayana.

The situation is being closely watched and monitored by the farming community, trade and the government agencies.

According to the report on crop situation (as of September 15) published by Bhaidas Cursondas, the going was good in the northern zone but the unwanted rains is likely to increase pest attack at the crucial stage of flowering and boll forming. It predicts cotton crop arrivals for the central zone around October first week if there is no rainfall and bright sunshine prevails.

In the south zone, the situation is satisfactory and early sown cotton is in the boll form.

In Rajasthan, one of the very few first deals for new cotton has been struck, says Shah.

About 200-250 bales of Bengal Desi kapas reached some mandis in Rajasthan for delivery on September 30, 98 after getting pressed at the gin.

Earlier the East India Cotton Association (EICA) informally placed the estimate for the cotton crop during the 1998-99 cotton yearat 180 lakh bales crop as against an estimated crop of 153.25 lakh bales for 1997-98 and actual production of 177.90 lakh bales during 1996-97.

Based on a sample survey carried out in major cotton growing areas during the current monsoon till late August 98, a leading cotton trading house CA Galiakotwala & Co Ltd had come out with an estimate of 173.55 lakh bales for 1998-99 and has also given state-wise break-up.

However, all these estimates could go awry if the weather God does not favour the farmers belying the hopes cherished so far of a bumper cotton output.