Oslo, Sept 22: Norway's economy has abruptly lost its glitter, just a year after politicians were debating if Norwegians were "lottery winners" because of booming oil wealth.A recent plunge in oil prices to 10-year lows has dimmed the outlook, stirring fears of a recession by the year 2000. Centrist prime minister Kjell Magne Bondevik is on sick leave, too depressed by his job to work.
Chances of a collapse of the centrist coalition have risen with opinion polls indicating a big swing to the opposition Labour Party. Interest rates have soared while the Oslo bourse has plunged 37 per cent from an all-time high in May.
Norwegians are even starting to wonder if Norway can be compared with Spain in the 16th century, when gold brought back from the Americas ended up undermining the domestic economy rather than enriching it.
"Norway's problem is that we have too much money and too few people," transport minister Einar Doerum said.
"We want to stop this being the same story as the Spanishgold. When theytook the gold back, it destroyed the economy. We should not have a Kuwait economy. All our challenges are to make an economy sound enough without the oil," he said.
"The populist answer has always been to throw money after people. The right wing says cut taxes, the left wing says build schools and hospitals. We have to be responsible," he said.
The crown hit an all-time low against the mark in August after the central bank abandoned a six-month fight to defend the sagging petro-currency after seven interest rate hikes this year.
Adding insult to injury, reporters from a Danish tabloid wearing T-shirts emblazoned "Help Norway" jokingly handed out 100 crown ($13) notes and bags full of food in front of parliament in Oslo this month.
Unlike the US economy, sometimes compared to "Goldilocks" since it has been neither too hot nor too cold, Norway's closest fairy tale parallel is "Cinderella" -- a boom and bust cycle in which the clock at the ball has just struck midnight.
Not that anyone is starving. Bythe standards of most nations, hardship in Norway meanstrimming frills that would be unaffordable in most nations.
The government faces uproar, for instance, over reports that it may -- in the name of a tight 1999 budget -- ditch a plan to give parents of two-year-olds a $400 payment every month if the child is cared for at home.
Norway's economy has boomed for six years on the back of oilwealth. Norwegians reckon their oil is perhaps the biggest per capita windfall a western democracy has ever had to cope with.
Oil output at 3.10 million barrels per day (bpd) works outas $3,500 per Norwegian per year with oil prices at $14.00 -- more than the per capita income of most nations in the world.
Yet Statistics Norway this month revised down its forecasts for economic growth, excluding the oil and gas sector, to a scant 0.5 percent for 1999 from 1.5 per cent seen in June. The 0.5 per cent rate would be the weakest in a decade.
Even with the slowdown, Norway still expects big budget and current accountsurpluses this year. If Norway were a member of the European Union, it would have breezed through the economic hurdles for a single currency.
Yet compared with a year ago, the mood has shifted abruptly -- a shock to many, including Bondevik.
Bondevik, a Lutheran pastor and generally popular prime minister, went on sick leave on August 30 after a "depressive reaction" to stress.
No pictures of Bondevik have appeared in the media since. His doctor insists he is getting better and expects him to be back at work on Thursday.
Bondevik came to power after a general election in 1997, fought over how much to spend Norway's oil wealth now on healthcare and pensions or to stash it away for the future in a gigantic Petroleum Fund.
Carl Hagen, populist head of the far-right Progress Party, sparked debate at the time by saying Norway was like a lottery winner and should spend more now. Norway spends about 8.0 percent of its gross domestic product on health, about average for rich nations.
But the fall in oilprices means that Norway's projected surpluses have contracted sharply. From a forecast 1998 budget surplus of 72.7 billion crowns, Norway now expects a skimpier 52.1 billion -- all to be invested in its Petroleum Fund.
The centrist coalition, with just 42 of 165 seats in parliament, seems to be dithering over fiscal policy, a big factor weakening the crown. The central bank has been pleading for tighter fiscal policy.
The opposition Labour Party, the biggest group in parliament with 65 seats, has cashed in on the economic problems and could take over if Bondevik falters.
Recent opinion polls show that Labour's support has leapt to around 45 percent, the highest since 1995 and twice the combined support for the three parties in the ruling coalition.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.