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Drumbeat: Ad Buzzaar
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Thursday, September 24, 1998
Belated wisdom
The International Monetary Fund has joined the growing chorus of voices calling for controls on capital movements. The Asian crisis, which has now become a worldwide financial conflagration, and sparked fears of a global depression, has led to a reappraisal of the long-held views of the so-called Washington consensus. The IMF now says that opening economies prematurely to free capital flows is "an accident waiting to happen." Strange that it took such a long time for the IMF to reach that conclusion, when the debt crises of the eighties, the Mexican crisis in 1994 and the Asian crisis last year had clearly demonstrated the havoc that such flows could wreak. But then ideology has ways of making people not see the obvious. Clearly, large flows of capital in and out of fragile economies have severe repercussions on their real economies, and the conditions in Indonesia today are a warning which can only be ignored by blind ideologues. Thankfully, policy-makers in India have for long taken a far more cautiousattitude towards hot money flows.There is a danger, however, that opinion may now shift to the other end of the political spectrum, and capital controls seen as ends in themselves. Paul Krugman has, in an open letter to the Malaysian prime minister, warned that capital controls should at best be seen as giving a breathing space, which will enable countries to restructure their beleaguered economies. They should not be seen as ends in themselves. This is important. Capital controls cannot serve as a prophylactic against the financial flu. Economies around the world are so interlinked that nobody will remain unaffected. China, for all its capital controls, is under tremendous pressure to devalue. There is no getting away from the fact that while the economy has become global, policy-making is still national. Therefore, given that financial contagion is a fact of life, there is an urgent need for a new international financial architecture, which will ensure a coordinated response to currency crises. The US president has outlined the basis ofthis new architecture, calling for increased tranparency, funding by the IMF, coordinated action by the G7 to ensure liquidity, and most significantly, a social safety net for those affected by such crises. The trouble is, there is no agreement about the necessary measures among the leaders of the G7, because domestic economic conditions continue to be uppermost in their minds while formulating policies. Jeffrey Sachs' proposal for a meeting between the leading developed and developing economies to thrash out these issues could be the first step towards developing an international framework for co-operation. Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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