Tokyo, Sept 25: Japanese rubber futures markets will maintain a firm tone next week on the back of growing concerns that heavy rains in rubber-producing countries could reduce supplies, analysts said on Friday.A prevailing perception that a correction in the yen's weakness against the dollar was over will also provide support to yen-based rubber futures prices, they added.
New benchmark March rubber futures were listed on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (Tocom) on Friday at an opening price of 101.0 yen. The contract is expected to rise towards 105 yen per kg if the dollar retains firmness against the yen, they said.
"Market bulls took an initiative in Tocom trade this week as weather concerns came into the spotlight," one brokerage analyst said. "They apparently aim to push the benchmark contract above 105 yen next week."
But a lack of recovery in rubber demand in Japan as well as other parts of Asia would prevent large gains, and a core range for the March contract will be 97 to 104 yen, headded.
Another brokerage analyst underplayed the impact of torrential rains on rubber supplies, saying weather concerns were only an excuse for bulls to squeeze the market.
"Investors had accumulated short positions earlier this month due to concerns over deflationary pressure on the global economy. Bullish operators actively bought the contracts in an attempt to force short-holders to unwind positions," he said.
But another brokerage official said recent heavy rains in rubber-producing countries were an additional blow to rubber production in the area already hit by prolonged drought earlier this year due to the El Nino weather pattern.
"Rubber production has yet to recover fully from the damages brought about by El Nino, causing delays in rubber shipments to Japan," the official said.
In the currency market, the dollar was above 135 yen on Friday afternoon in Tokyo, with jitters over Japan's troubled banking sector putting the Japanese currency under pressure.
Crude rubber stocks at Japaneseprivate warehouses stood at 30,831 tonnes as of September 10, up from 30,743 tonnes as of the end of August, the latest data released by the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed.
Open interest of Tocom rubber futures, a barometer of the contract's popularity among investors, fell further to 217,673 lots at the end of Thursday trade from 228,423 lots a week ago.
On the Osaka Mercantile Exchange, newly listed benchmark March rubber futures stood at 102.9 yen on Friday afternoon.
Thai rubber was offered to Japan at 71.50 US cents per kg on an FOB basis on Friday, up from 68 cents a week earlier.
In the local physical market, benchmark Thai rubber for large-lot end users was quoted at 109 yen per kg on Friday, up from 101 yen a week ago.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.