But Ficci considers its growth forecast ``achievable''. It offers two reasons. The ports in Gujarat are now gearing up, after the recent cyclone, to clear piled up export cargo. And the corporate sector is recasting its overseas market-development strategy in the wake of the domestic recession.

The recession is now in its third year; however, export growth fell from 20.8 per cent in 1995-96 to 5.3 per cent in 1996-97 and thereafter to a distressing 1.5 per cent (in dollar terms) in 1997-98. The recession did not inspire corporates to seek export pastures. This, despite the depreciation in the exchange rate from Rs 35.81 per dollar in April 1997to Rs 40 in January this year and to Rs 42 plus thereafter.

Ficci may be right in saying exports will gather momentum. The current exchange rate makes exports attractive. But 8 per cent growth this year is nowhere near Ficci's normative export growth targets of 15 per cent for the coming year and 20 per cent for 2000-2001. Such high growth is desirable.

The trouble is, as noted by Ficci, many industries currently use more raw materials, energy and labour in manufacturing than their counterparts abroad. The (widening) technological gap, it notes, makes it difficult to increase market share abroad. Corporates must recast their investment strategy, says Ficci, with an eye on the vast export market.

But it offers no clue about how corporates can be goaded to think big. So, it backs Ramakrishna Hegde's proposal for promoting dollar zones (paying dollar wages) dedicated to 100 per cent export. This is another way of saying that exports need new mega investment and that the existing industrial structure cancontribute to exports only at the margin.

Liberalisation was intended to get the economy to invest in large capacities to take care of both domestic and export demand; indeed to use exports to derive economies of scale. But the logic of the open economy has faltered because industrial investment has been focused on the narrow domestic upmarket. This has not added to the production of exportables. Dollar zones, or export enclaves, belong to the logic of the closed economy. This apart, the issue is how to direct mega investment into dollar zones.