The department of economic affairs (DEA) has requested the department of statistics to initiate a revision of the GDP figures.

DEA is credited with the view that there is general under-reporting of the products in the unorganised sector as a result of which the GDP figures do not reflect the true picture.

The issue of a "correction" in the GDP figures has been raised now and then. But it acquired an added urgency recently in the context of India's special drawing rights (SDR) and its voting strength in IMF.

India, being a founder member of IMF, had a permanent chair in the board of the world body till 1972. Since then, however, owing to the enlargement of the fund membership and the relative decline in India's importance by the size of its GDP, external trade and reserves, its quotahas been declining continuously over the years.

India's calculated IMF quota on the basis of a set of formulae using GDP, reserves, current receipts and payments and variability has shown a sharp decline from 5.18 per cent (pre-partition days) to a mere 0.76 per cent now.

DEA believes that this situation could change to benefit if necessary corrections were made by the statistics department.

DEA has also pointed out that it was necessary to examine the trade data to see whether there was a complete coverage, so that appropriate corrections could be carried out in regard to these data.

According to statistics available on India's IMF quota share, the country enjoyed 5.18 per cent in 1944 which went down to 5 per cent in 1953, 3.7 per cent in 1955, 2.56 per cent in 1965, 2.3 per cent in 1970, 1.29 per cent in 1975, 1.12 per cent in 1978, 0.98 per cent in 1983, 0.97 per cent in 1990, 0.88 per cent in 1995 and 0.76 per cent in 1997.

Even in dollar terms (actual quota), it did not gain. In 1995, theassistance entitlement was $3055.5 million. It was the same figure in 1997 as well.

India ranked 13th in terms of its SDRs, behind that of US ($26,526.8 million), Germany ($8,241.5 million), Japan ($8,241 million), France ($7,414 million), UK ($7,414 million), Saudi Arabia ($5,130 million), Italy ($1,590 million), Canada ($4,320 million), Russia ($4,313 million), Netherlands ($ 3,444 million), China ($3,385 million) and Belgium ($3,102 million).

As a result of the 11th quota review of IMF, India's quota has, in real terms, increased from SDR $3055.5 million to SDR $4158.2 million. But, its share in total quotas declined from 2.09 per cent in 9th review to 1.96 per cent in the 11th review last year.

INSIGHT
Rich men's club

India's GDP is under-estimated because of the black economy and the difficulty of capturing income in the unorganised sector. The estimate of foreign trade too will be larger if under-reporting can be eliminated. But, whether the corrections, desirable in themselves,will help it secure a larger quota with IMF, is debatable.

China, with a vastly larger GDP and foreign trade than India, has a quota that is just 0.25 points more than India. Despite sustained high growth (since 1978), China's quota has shrunk like India's. In the GDP-foreign trade game, industrialised countries are way ahead of the developing world. This is what makes IMF the rich men's club.