The cotton traders have revised the country's cotton estimates downward to about 176 lakh bales in the current cotton year (Oct 1998-Sep 99) which is almost at the 1996-97 level.

The northern states of the country are expected to have a crop of 36.8 lakh bales, central India - 102.75 lakh bales and southern states- 43.70 lakh bales. Other states of the country are expected to produce a lakh cotton bales.

According to a report by leading cotton trading company, Perfect Cotton, in the northern states, Punjab is expected to produce 11.50 lakh bales, Haryana 11.30 lakh bales, and Rajasthan 14 lakh bales.

Gujarat alone is expected to produce 44.90 lakh bales, the report said. The productions in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are expected to be 36.10 lakhbales and 21.25 lakh bales respectively.

The southern states comprising Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are likely to reap 10.50 lakh bales, 27.90 lakh bales and 5.25 lakh bales respectively.

The main varieties that are sown in the country for the current season includes J-34, F414, Jhurad, Begal Deshi, S-4/S-6, Wagad, V-797, G-13, Kalagin, DCH-32, Jyothi, H-4, H-5, DCH-32, Comilla, Jayadhar, Suyodhar, Varalaxmi, Agetti, Somnath, F-414, Y-1, MECH-1, LH-1134 and others.The production is likely to be much higher compared with the previous year but is not expected to cross the bumper crop witnessed in the year before last, traders said.

The rains have been good and if unseasonal rains are witnessed during summer there are chances of a small rabi crop, which may lead to upward revision in in the later part of the cotton year.

Last year, the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) had made a downward revision in the estimated production of cotton in five major states mainly due to after effects of the heavyrains in winter. The rains then continued for 10 days at a stretch and destroyed standing plants and seedlings that were in their initial stages.

Normally strong sunshine following winter rains is considered to be good for the quality as well as quantity of the cotton crop.

It may be recalled that the country has made major progress in the cotton production. There has been a six-fold increase in cotton production since 1950-51 when the output was only about 30 lakh bales.

Although the area under cotton cultivation has gone up to 90 lakh hectares from about 60 lakh hectares in 1950-51, the yield has out-performed the rise in acreage.

However, the present productivity per hectare in the country is 305 kilograms well below the world average of 515 kilograms.