Singapore, Oct 4: Asia's economic crisis and bilateral bickering has exposed fundamental weakness in the Association of South East Asian Nations, but it would be wrong to write off the 30-year-old group, analysts say.The turmoil has called into question the need for an Asean with no role as a regional economic watchdog and powerless to settle squabbles among members, but it is exactly this questioning that will set in on its future track, they say.
``Asean is undergoing its worst crisis. To some extent the economic crisis has revealed some of the fundamental weaknesses of Asean,'' executive director Abdul Razak Baginda of the Malaysian Strategic Research Centre, told Reuters by telephone. ``It has really hit at the very core of the association, which is: what exactly is Aseanall about ?'' Asesan groups Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia and Brunei, countries with starkly differing economic landscapes, political systems and religious beliefs. Many observers haveseen their major common interest as rapid regional economic expansion. But this has vanished in the wake of the economic crisis, leading some to suggest that Asesan has little else to bind it together. Experts see the group's economic woes exposing fault lines that threaten regional security and at the same time derailing Asean's centrepiece free trade timetable.
Deepening diplomatic discord between member states in an organisation founded on the principle of non-confrontation is the most visible sign of the problems facing Asean as its economic ministers prepare to meet this week in Manila. Cross-border criticism has soared between the Philippines and Malaysia, Indonesia and Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore, Singapore and Malaysia, Thailand and Myanmar as tensions masked by economic success have burst to the surface. Thailand has even called for the non-intervention Asean ethos to be scrapped allowing members to talk openly and frankly about each other's national issues that affect the region.
``Aseanhas muddled through over the last 30 years with no real crisis, no real test. This is a real test of Asean resolve and to my mind it has failed miserably because it would appear that every country is now every state for itself,''
Razak said. Analysts agree that with bilateral relations inside Asean at a nadir, the organisation is at a crucial stage given that it works largely on bilateral, rather than regional cooperation.
``The time is probably right to carry out a thorough review of Asean'' a senior aide Dewi Fortuna Anwar to Indonesian president BJ Habibie, said in a speech on Friday to the Asesan secretariat in Jakarta.``Asean needs to find a new focus and sense of direction as well as new modalities for action.''
That the organisation has a future, despite present fractious relations, is something on which analysts agree.
``Asean has been written off time and time again,'' he told Reuters. ``Basically the role for regionalism has been accepted and is not really in dispute,'' despite the economiccrisis that has dealt a devastating blow to most Asean members and inevitably made them focus on internal, not regional, issues.
``There are going to be times when bilateral relations between countries go through very rough patches and that is all the more reason why you need an organisation like Asean'' Funston said.
He argues that Asean was in part conceived to deal with such tensions and has successfully negotiated a series of internal crises since it was founded in 1967 while building up strong intra-member relationships on many levels.But if Asesan is not going to implode in acrimony, how will it evolve, given the trend of globalisation in the world economy and the need to develop regional identity and responses ? Avoiding the minefield of flexible engagement will be hard given the swing towards more open comment in some states like the Philippines, Thailand and to a certain extent Indonesia, in contrast with more fragile and reclusive regimes like Myanmar and Laos.Establishing a broader economicbrief seems essential.
``But I don't think we should divide Asean and say it is a political body or it is economic. It should be all encompassing to deal with a variety of issues. We (Asean members) are all ultimately moving in the same direction.''
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.